You want to estimate your chances of getting tickets to next month's State U vs. Acme Tech basketball game on the day of the game. (You don't have the money at the moment to buy the tickets in advance.) You're convinced that the availability of tickets will be affected by such factors as the win-loss record of the two teams and whether or not the game will be televised.
Looking at the respective schedules for the two teams during the month preceding the game, you esti mate that currently undefeated State has a .6 probabil ity o? not losing a game between now and the Acme match-up. Acme, on the other hand, is given only a .3 chance of being undefeated going into the State game. If only one of the teams is undefeated, you believe there is a 50-50 chance that the game will be on television. If BOTH teams are unde?eated, the probability o? television coverage increases to 90%. If neither team is unde?eated, the chance of TV drops to only 20%. (So long, ESPNU.)
If the game is televised, you believe you can reason ably assign a .30 probability to the possibility of tickets being available for the game on game day. If the game is not on TV, then the probability of available tickets decreases to about 10%. How likely is it that tickets will be available on game day?s