Coco S. A. is considering diversifying and entering the housing market in the USA. They are only

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Coco S. A. is considering diversifying and entering the housing market in the USA. They are only interested in a short-term investment. To help them with the decision and assess the market, their US analyst extracted a time series that covers US Months’ Supply of Houses For Sale at Current Sales Rate. The time series is not adjusted for seasonality and the data set reflects true market movements. Table 9.13 covers data from January 2004 to June 2008.

Analyse the data and produce a forecast. Pay specific attention to:

(a) Graphing the time series

(b) Deciding on the type of time series

(c) Using the best-suited method and producing forecasts until the end of 2008 (six time periods in the future)

(d) Measuring the quality of your forecast

(e) Deciding what would be your recommendations, from the data analysis point of view, to the company.

2004 01 4.2 2004 2004 2004 2004 2004 2005 06 4 2004 2005 07 3.9 2004 08 4 2005 08 4.3 2004 09 4.4 2005 09 5

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Business Statistics Using Excel

ISBN: 9780199659517

2nd Edition

Authors: Glyn Davis, Branko Pecar

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