As a farmer, you must decide on whether to plant an old seed variety or a new seed variety. You have the old seed variety in stock but if you choose to plant the new seed variety, it will cost you $25,000.

For both varieties, you must consider whether fertilizer will be available or not available in the future.

If you choose to plant the new seed variety however, you must also decide on whether you will plant a single crop or a double crop. If you plant the double crop, there is a possibility that there will be an early monsoon or a not early monsoon.

Before a choice is made between a single crop and a double crop, $150,000is added to the double crop if fertilizer is available and $85,000 is added if fertilizer is in shortage.

The table below summarizes the payoffs:

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Decisions States of Nature Fertilizer Available (p = 0.7) Plant old seed variety $100,000 Plant new seed variety Sub- decision: 1. Single Crop: 2. Double Crop: $130,000 Fertilizer Shortage (p = 0.3) $95,000 $90,000 Early Monsoon (p=0.4) Not Early Monsoon (p=0.6) Early Monsoon (p=0.4) Not Early Monsoon (p=0.6) $120,000 $200,000 +[$150,000] $38,000 $120,000 +[$85,000] Decisions States of Nature Fertilizer Available (p = 0.7) Plant old seed variety $100,000 Plant new seed variety Sub- decision: 1. Single Crop: 2. Double Crop: $130,000 Fertilizer Shortage (p = 0.3) $95,000 $90,000 Early Monsoon (p=0.4) Not Early Monsoon (p=0.6) Early Monsoon (p=0.4) Not Early Monsoon (p=0.6) $120,000 $200,000 +[$150,000] $38,000 $120,000 +[$85,000]