Assume that EBV invested in Newco at the terms in Exercise 10.2, and it is now one year later. Talltree is considering a $10M Series B investment in Newco. Talltree proposes to structure the investment as 8M shares of convertible preferred stock. The employees of Newco have claims on 10M shares of common stock, and the previous venture investors (EBV) hold 6M shares of Series A convertible preferred. Thus, following the Series B investment, Newco will have 10M common shares outstanding, and would have 24M shares outstanding on conversion of the CP. Talltree estimates a 40 percent probability for a successful exit, with an expected exit time in 4 years and an exit valuation of $500M. The $250M Talltree fund has annual fees of 2 percent for each of its 10 years of life and earns 20 percent carried interest on all profits.

(a) What is your investment recommendation for Talltree? (Show all steps.)

(b) How sensitive is this recommendation to different assumptions about the exit valuation and the probability of success?

(c) Given the evidence described in Chapter 7, do you think that 40 percent is an aggressive assumption about the probability of success for a second-round investment?