Dr. Carter Logue practices dentistry in Santa Fe, New Mexico. Logue tries hard to schedule appointments so
Question:
Unfortunately, not every patient arrives exactly on schedule. Also, some examinations take longer than planned, and some take less time than planned. Logues experience dictates the following: 20% of the patients will be 20 minutes early, 10% of the patients will be 10 minutes early, 40% of the patients will be on time, 25% of the patients will be 10 minutes late, and 5% of the patients will be 20 minutes late.
He further estimates that there is a 15% chance that an appointment will take 20% less time than planned, 50% chance it will take exactly the planned time, 25% chance it will take 20% more time than planned, and 10% chance it will take 40% more time than planned.
Dr. Logue has to leave at 12:15 P.M. on October 20 to catch a flight to a dental convention in Rio de Janerio. Assuming that he is ready to start his workday at 9:30 A.M. and that patients are treated in order of their scheduled exam (even if one late patient arrives after an early one), will he be able to make the flight? Use A replications.
Step by Step Answer:
Managerial Decision Modeling With Spreadsheets
ISBN: 9780136115830
3rd Edition
Authors: Nagraj Balakrishnan, Barry Render, Jr. Ralph M. Stair