# In Problem 14, the management of the Oakland Bombers is considering hiring superscout Jerry McGuire to evaluate

## Question:

The probability that he will successfully predict a competitive season is .80, whereas the probability that he will incorrectly predict a losing season, given that the team is competitive, is .10, and the probability that he will incorrectly predict a playoff season, given the team has a competitive season, is .10. The probability that he will correctly predict a playoff season is .85, whereas the probability that he will incorrectly predict a losing season, given that the team makes the playoffs, is .05, and the probability that he will predict a competitive season, given the team makes the playoffs, is .10. Using decision tree analysis and posterior probabilities, determine the decision strategy the team should follow, the expected value of the strategy, and the maximum amount the team should pay for Jerry McGuire’s predictions.

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