Lakeland-Bering Aircraft Company is preparing a contract proposal to submit to the defense department for a new military aircraft, the X-300J jet fighter. Part of the proposal is a development and production schedule for completion of the first aircraft. The project consists of three primary categories: engine design and development, development and production of the airframe (e.g., the aircraft body), and design and development of the aircraft avionics (e.g., the electronic systems, equipment, and other devices used to operate and control the aircraft). Following is a list of the project activities, with time estimates (in months):

Develop the project network and determine the critical path, the expected project duration, and the variance. What is the probability that the project will be completed within 8 years?

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Time Estimates (mo.) Activity Predecessor Activity Activity Description 22 57 General design Engine design Airframe design Avionics design Develop test engine Develop test airframe Develop interim avionics Develop engine Assemble test aircraft Test avionics Conduct engine/airframe flight trials Conduct avionics flight trials Produce engine Produce airframe Produce avionics Final assembly/finish 10 33 17 20 20 12 10 28 41 10 16 12 24 15 24 19 5, 6,7 10 10 12 10 12 20 11, 12 13, 14, 15 16 16