One of the most important variables that must be forecasted accurately to project the cost of single-family home construction is the price of Southern pine framing lumber. Use the following data to forecast two- and four-year-ahead lumber prices. Compare the forecast accuracy of at least two alternative forecastingmethods.

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2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 LUMBER PRICE INDEX 205.1 192.5 1732 160.0 137.1 134.5 140.2 1464 176.3 168.4 182.7 168.7 1627 168.9 163.2 137.5 123.9 121.7 118.9 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 1980 1979 1978 1977 1976 1975 1974 1973 1972 1971 1970 1969 1968 1967 1966 1965 1964 00.0 101.3 101.2 938 964 952 99.0 90.9 779 677 58.3 60.5 58.3 47.6 41.9 374 413 37.3 32.9 33.0 31.6 314 05.8 100.7