Reuters reported the market beta for Xerox was 1.22 (Reuter’s website, January 30, 2009). Market betas for individual stocks are determined by simple linear regression. For each stock, the dependent variable is its quarterly percentage return (capital appreciation plus dividends) minus the percentage return that could be obtained from a risk-free investment (The Treasury Bill rate is used as the risk-free rate). The independent variable is the quarterly percentage return (capital appreciation plus dividends) for the stock market (S&P 500) minus the percentage return from a risk-free investment. An estimated regression equation is developed with quarterly data; the market beta for the stock is the slope of the estimated regression equation (b1). The value of the market beta is often interpreted as a measure of the risk associated with the stock. Market betas greater than 1 indicate that the stock is more volatile than the market average; market betas less than 1 indicate that the stock is less volatile than the market average. Suppose that the following figures are the differences between the percentage return and the risk-free return for 10 quarters for the S&P 500 and Horizon Technology.
S&P 500 Horizon
1.2 ............. – .7
–2.5 ............. –2.0
–3.0 ............. –5.5
2.0 ............. 4.7
5.0 ............. 1.8
1.2 ............. 4.1
3.0 ............. 2.6
–1.0 ............. 2.0
.5 ............. –1.3
2.5 ............. 5.5
a. Develop an estimated regression equation that can be used to predict the market beta for Horizon Technology. What is Horizon Technology’s market beta?
b. Test for a significant relationship at the .05 level of significance.
c. Did the estimated regression equation provide a good fit? Explain.
d. Use the market betas of Xerox and Horizon Technology to compare the risk associated with the two stocks.