=+29. Coffee prices 2013. Coffee is the world’s second largest legal export commodity (after oil) and is the second largest source of foreign exchange for developing nations. The United States consumes about one-fifth of the world’s coffee. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) computes a coffee price index using Colombian, Brazilian, and a mixture of other coffee data. Data are provided for the daily ICO price index (in $US) from January 2013 to April 2013.

Coffee Price 135.0 15 Time 142.5 150.0 30 45 60 Here’s an autoregressive model for the composite prices.

Dependent variable is: coffee 73 total cases of which 2 are missing R squared = 88.7% R squared (adjusted) = 88.4%

s = 2.034 with 71 - 3 = 54 degrees of freedom Variable Coefficient SE(Coeff) t-ratio P-value Intercept 6.75323 5.922 1.14 0.2581 Lag1 0.838228 0.1194 7.02 … 0.0001 Lag2 0.113135 0.1192 0.949 0.3459