Consider the following annual model of the death rate (per million population) due to coronary heart disease

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Consider the following annual model of the death rate (per million population) due to coronary heart disease in the United States (Yt):

= 140 + 10.0C, + 4.0E, – 1.0M, (2.5) (1.0) (0.5) 4.0 - 2.0 %3D t = 4.0 N = 31 (1975–2005) R² = .678 %3D


Where:

Ct = per capita cigarette consumption (pounds of tobacco) in year t

Et = per capita consumption of edible saturated fats (pounds of butter, margarine, and lard) in year t

Mt = per capita consumption of meat (pounds) in year t

a. Create and test appropriate hypotheses at the 10-percent level. What, if anything, seems to be wrong with the estimated coefficient of M?

b. The most likely cause of a coefficient that is significant in the unexpected direction is omitted variable bias. Which of the following variables could possibly be an omitted variable that is causing ­N M€™s unexpected sign? Explain.

Bt = per capita consumption of hard liquor (gallons) in year t

Ft = the average fat content (percentage) of the meat that was consumed in year t

Wt = per capita consumption of wine and beer (gallons) in year t

Rt = per capita number of miles run in year t

Ht = per capita open-heart surgeries in year t

Ot = per capita amount of oat bran eaten in year t

c. If you had to choose a variable not listed in part b to add to the equation, what would it be? Explain your answer.

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