Your neighbor lives in a 2500-square-foot (about 250 m²) older house heated by natural gas. The current gas heater was installed in the early 1980s and has an efficiency (called the Annual Fuel Utilization Efficiency rating, or AFUE) of 65 percent. It is time to replace the furnace, and the neighbor is trying to decide between a conventional furnace that has an efficiency of 80 percent and costs $1500 and a high-efficiency furnace that has an efficiency of 95 percent and costs $2500. Your neighbor offered to pay you $100 if you help him make the right decision. Considering the weather data, typical heating loads, and the price of natural gas in your area, make a recommendation to your neighbor based on a convincing economic analysis.