The number of job openings fluctuates through time, providing useful information about the current state of the economy and possibilities for the future. Table 14.4.11 shows the computed results of a BoxJenkins analysis of job openings in thousands, annually at the start of each year from 2001 to 2015, while Fig. 14.4.2 shows the data series with the Box-Jenkins forecasts.21 

a. What kind of component (autoregressive or moving average) does the estimated model include? 

b. How many differences are used in the model? 

c. Is the model component that you identified in part a significant? 

d. Is the constant term significant?

e. Based on the figure, would you be surprised to see 15,000,000 job openings in 2020?
f. Based on the figure, would you be surprised to see 7,500,000 job openings in 2020?

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TABLE 14.4.11 Results of Box-Jenkins Analysis of Job Openings Final Estimates of Parameters t Ratio p-Value St Dev Type Estimate AR1 0.23997 0.30021 0.7993 0.4396 Constant -34.5808 267.8398 -0.1291 0.8994 Non-seasonal differencing: 1. Number of observations: Original series 15, after differencing 14. Residuals: SS=7,306,686.7; DF=12. 20,000 17,500 15,000 12,500 10,000 7,500 5,000 2,500 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Year Job openings (thousands)