A national sports team plans to expand their stadium. The team asks construction companies to send their bids for the expansion project and chooses the minimum one as the winning bid.

The data analysts of the team constructed a spreadsheet model to better understand the effects of random factors on the winning bid. Then, they ran a Monte Carlo simulation study with 1000 trials.

The above Excel file presents the results of their Monte Carlo simulation. Winning bid values are given in $Million.

The analysts would like to estimate the probability that the winning bid (strictly) exceeds $18 million and also construct a confidence interval with 99% confidence level for this probability, based on these simulation results.

Answer the following questions to help them.

a) What is the unbiased estimator (for the probability that the analysts would like to estimate. Submit your answers using the drop-down menus given below.

options: 0.795, 0.743, 0.803, 0.789, 0.811, 0.761, 0759, 0.733, 0.777

b) What is the lower bound of the confidence interval that the analysts would like to construct. Submit your answers using the drop-down menus given below.

options: 0.795, 0.743, 0.803, 0.789, 0.811, 0.761, 0759, 0.733, 0.777

c) What is the upper bound of the confidence interval that the analysts would like to construct. Submit your answers using the drop-down menus given below.

options: 0.795, 0.743, 0.803, 0.789, 0.811, 0.761, 0759, 0.733, 0.777

Sim No Winning Bid
1 24.624
2 27.058
3 13.549
4 23.265
5 15.997
6 12.723
7 20.565
8 32.764
9 19.173
10 20.998
11 23.968
12 17.412
13 18.093
14 17.967
15 24.906
16 11.792
17 18.429
18 18.636
19 25.328
20 18.453
21 13.395
22 23.735
23 24.805
24 22.772
25 24.356
26 21.644
27 17.938
28 21.452
29 20.688
30 19.165
31 23.109
32 26.21
33 21.455
34 25.421
35 20.269
36 19.902
37 22.762
38 19.524
39 20.267
40 15.17
41 20.557
42 15.467
43 20.298
44 27.673
45 23.288
46 19.223
47 20.192
48 16.845
49 22.305
50 21.824
51 18.029
52 17.923
53 18.462
54 22.442
55 19.468
56 21.187
57 17.641
58 16.653
59 18.388
60 19.978
61 16.911
62 26.156
63 19.749
64 19.505
65 14.136
66 18.385
67 27.032
68 20.295
69 22.448
70 16.682
71 20.355
72 14.777
73 19.571
74 23.13
75 23.688
76 23.109
77 25.594
78 21.854
79 21.131
80 16.326
81 22.08
82 22.078
83 27.682
84 15.651
85 24.488
86 19.009
87 25.899
88 24.538
89 21.266
90 18.142
91 24.039
92 20.024
93 21.704
94 19.676
95 19.771
96 22.94
97 20.35
98 16.266
99 23.111
100 19.284
101 15.677
102 21.34
103 24.896
104 19.272
105 15.522
106 19.869
107 19.307
108 21.082
109 18.126
110 22.832
111 18.619
112 19.159
113 22.594
114 17.857
115 26.294
116 25.057
117 26.457
118 18.185
119 19.77
120 19.861
121 18.459
122 17.023
123 20.88
124 26.622
125 16.644
126 19.578
127 18.722
128 18.514
129 18.444
130 24.1
131 14.761
132 20.99
133 12.659
134 23.306
135 23.983
136 19.979
137 24.378
138 20.051
139 22.839
140 18.078
141 22.293
142 23.037
143 23.08
144 19.62
145 19.433
146 17.708
147 21.037
148 18.781
149 20.605
150 24.812
151 31.399
152 16.227
153 23.977
154 25.073
155 26.746
156 20.344
157 22.501
158 18.21
159 15.647
160 21.809
161 30.323
162 23.141
163 19.59
164 20.372
165 27.964
166 15.556
167 26.339
168 19.649
169 16.7
170 22.077
171 18.392
172 18.966
173 24.656
174 16.645
175 15.114
176 18.041
177 26.368
178 24.671
179 26.764
180 18.998
181 20.758
182 18.773
183 21.239
184 18.969
185 18.692
186 24.571
187 19.641
188 22.844
189 14.381
190 17.931
191 18.949
192 17.23
193 23.694
194 24.718
195 20.627
196 18.78
197 16.655
198 16.21
199 23.529
200 30.338
201 17.238
202 20.765
203 19.74
204 17.921
205 15.229
206 17.987
207 25.68
208 19.558
209 17.092
210 23.497
211 19.631
212 22.221
213 15.129
214 20.524
215 25.46
216 18.019
217 16.546
218 21.821
219 23.638
220 20.178
221 20.609
222 23.294
223 19.182
224 21.359
225 18.54
226 13.203
227 25.55
228 16.749
229 22.477
230 18.046
231 20.811
232 19.235
233 13.148
234 18.275
235 26.468
236 20.424
237 19.366
238 20.24
239 14.91
240 23.097
241 20.75
242 17.485
243 20.869
244 15.216
245 20.008
246 19.605
247 19.539
248 21.658
249 16.878
250 22.804
251 19.533
252 14.974
253 19.036
254 20.374
255 22.994
256 19.017
257 21.649
258 22.6
259 20.993
260 18.122
261 17.073
262 21.499
263 25.804
264 22.739
265 19.64
266 17.076
267 22.197
268 18.341
269 17.395
270 28.466
271 20.722
272 17.117
273 20.953
274 18.78
275 21.515
276 21.897
277 20.887
278 20.016
279 20.513
280 22.537
281 18.398
282 23.329
283 24.605
284 21.221
285 20.948
286 21.156
287 21.83
288 20.266
289 20.814
290 23.406
291 22.901
292 15.236
293 22.821
294 20.087
295 21.165
296 15.917
297 17.49
298 17.547
299 18.836
300 18.661
301 24.629
302 16.792
303 20.821
304 18.06
305 21.407
306 17.917
307 13.224
308 15.219
309 24.025
310 14.458
311 25.159
312 21.215
313 20.875
314 24.846
315 21.533
316 24.595
317 21.306
318 14.339
319 21.701
320 23.43
321 18.614
322 21.751
323 15.963
324 19.237
325 18.949
326 18.774
327 22.806
328 20.296
329 23.274
330 30.55
331 21.98
332 21.812
333 20.988
334 23.434
335 19.388
336 25.813
337 17.59
338 25.869
339 20.739
340 19.067
341 21.391
342 21.609
343 18.708
344 17.329
345 18.173
346 20.177
347 17.873
348 21.904
349 22.191
350 16.93
351 18.507
352 23.161
353 18.176
354 27.349
355 25.721
356 22.165
357 28.496
358 22.842
359 16.608
360 22.973
361 17.256
362 15.615
363 23.481
364 20.114
365 22.943
366 22.614
367 21.154
368 26.426
369 17.529
370 17.318
371 14.149
372 19.035
373 23.073
374 21.99
375 14.061
376 21.391
377 20.05
378 17.793
379 15.072
380 21.411
381 21.691
382 20.16
383 23.485
384 19.313
385 18.803
386 23.823
387 18.663
388 18.528
389 21.479
390 21.283
391 20.432
392 32.528
393 20.352
394 25.364
395 16.687
396 22.487
397 24.02
398 19.76
399 21.031
400 22.76
401 22.846
402 18.863
403 22.608
404 19.605
405 21.665
406 28.493
407 18.667
408 16.831
409 19.976
410 20.565
411 25.527
412 26.209
413 18.841
414 16.47
415 25.746
416 22.098
417 16.274
418 24.571
419 23.351
420 25.356
421 19.404
422 24.644
423 20.113
424 24.385
425 19.82
426 20.648
427 22.585
428 18.217
429 18.588
430 17.987
431 15.226
432 22.123
433 28.137
434 19.938
435 16.386
436 15.721
437 18.792
438 18.7
439 21.289
440 19.668
441 16.962
442 19.035
443 17.147
444 23.686
445 21.47
446 17.581
447 18.33
448 20.888
449 20.009
450 23.154
451 16.875
452 20.054
453 22.594
454 19.213
455 22.776
456 18.048
457 19.544
458 19.485
459 15.982
460 19.954
461 13.257
462 27.011
463 21.003
464 16.798
465 21.081
466 21.051
467 18.042
468 20.438
469 18.619
470 20.647
471 21.721
472 16.999
473 20.636
474 17.933
475 17.432
476 18.412
477 17.026
478 20.637
479 24.462
480 21.707
481 19.882
482 23.054
483 20.911
484 24.463
485 21.157
486 28.688
487 24.283
488 19.838
489 30.951
490 22.754
491 20.945
492 20.709
493 17.479
494 23.469
495 17.727
496 26.267
497 17.844
498 16.81
499 19.746
500 24.593
501 22.215
502 17.637
503 18.538
504 19.049
505 22.053
506 18.911
507 22.18
508 18.789
509 17.041
510 21.069
511 23.627
512 20.292
513 17.686
514 15.249
515 19.553
516 22.57
517 21.31
518 27.182
519 17.257
520 18.608
521 17.918
522 21.671
523 19.602
524 20.288
525 25.988
526 19.732
527 21.306
528 18.691
529 17.104
530 21.857
531 24.211
532 19.893
533 21.092
534 20.633
535 17.659
536 18.937
537 20.548
538 19.157
539 18.28
540 19.783
541 15.942
542 23.36
543 30.269
544 27.781
545 14.144
546 21.733
547 19.678
548 19.782
549 16.232
550 22.964
551 16.964
552 13.017
553 18.195
554 15.997
555 16.609
556 26.311
557 18.588
558 24.643
559 15.235
560 21.119
561 15.467
562 19.309
563 18.885
564 19.364
565 22.53
566 23.23
567 17.331
568 19.16
569 26.959
570 21.796
571 25.337
572 23.737
573 19.831
574 24.35
575 14.758
576 17.346
577 23.343
578 24.04
579 23.768
580 23.29
581 23.18
582 18.997
583 23.746
584 19.933
585 15.394
586 18.728
587 22.987
588 16.957
589 20.845
590 22.926
591 17.565
592 20.163
593 28.148
594 23.917
595 23.918
596 24.461
597 18.894
598 23.506
599 24.033
600 21.897
601 22.164
602 17.997
603 19.551
604 13.621
605 17.305
606 17.804
607 19.879
608 20.089
609 19.553
610 17.689
611 20.948
612 21.45
613 23.405
614 19.465
615 19.548
616 21.572
617 22.487
618 26.458
619 19.09
620 22.43
621 20.813
622 21.801
623 18.182
624 21.95
625 20.917
626 22.824
627 24.751
628 18.761
629 18.937
630 22.232
631 20.181
632 21.057
633 20.266
634 18.105
635 24.58
636 20.901
637 35.318
638 13.06
639 25.565
640 18.042
641 17.559
642 14.574
643 22.553
644 17.665
645 24.28
646 20.325
647 17.842
648 22.25
649 15.608
650 30.049
651 17.519
652 12.392
653 21.678
654 18.364
655 15.973
656 21.332
657 17.037
658 21.442
659 22.634
660 16.248
661 21.016
662 23.639
663 15.329
664 24.281
665 23.371
666 25.119
667 18.911
668 20.036
669 18.904
670 24.169
671 18.485
672 20.403
673 20.712
674 20.333
675 20.84
676 20.898
677 19.294
678 18.645
679 22.61
680 19.569
681 19.75
682 22.397
683 19.901
684 23.292
685 24.13
686 23.964
687 19.815
688 20.053
689 15.775
690 25.575
691 24.125
692 22.633
693 14.543
694 18.892
695 16.853
696 27.069
697 16.088
698 19.676
699 19.994
700 22.868
701 17.599
702 18.359
703 21.597
704 23.066
705 23.174
706 17.635
707 21.686
708 22.027
709 20.284
710 18.652
711 20.022
712 18.681
713 19.818
714 21.217
715 23.717
716 18.544
717 16.979
718 21.459
719 23.585
720 19.312
721 17.434
722 19.671
723 30.254
724 19.767
725 28.881
726 20.479
727 24.329
728 21.71
729 24.204
730 25.031
731 23.756
732 21.827
733 15.65
734 20.094
735 21.746
736 19.635
737 24.333
738 16.063
739 20.747
740 22.327
741 14.237
742 20.002
743 34.193
744 16.678
745 20.731
746 16.21
747 22.922
748 21.781
749 18.49
750 22.933
751 22.174
752 14.327
753 19.734
754 23.394
755 18.645
756 22.592
757 20.596
758 18.946
759 22.364
760 22.341
761 23.888
762 17.746
763 20.297
764 13.425
765 21.421
766 18.241
767 24.919
768 21.255
769 21.328
770 16.705
771 31.852
772 22.399
773 18.212
774 20.155
775 25.394
776 20.952
777 17.582
778 19.444
779 21.297
780 21.247
781 19.429
782 21.249
783 16.146
784 17.425
785 18.498
786 22.07
787 20.076
788 18.496
789 22.835
790 17.302
791 17.991
792 30.115
793 20.017
794 20.554
795 19.026
796 25.417
797 17.69
798 17.819
799 22.19
800 14.247
801 17.387
802 20.584
803 25.914
804 20.529
805 13.808
806 19.339
807 20.128
808 16.862
809 25.66
810 14.599
811 19.065
812 18.646
813 20.947
814 13.599
815 13.155
816 19.835
817 17.989
818 14.476
819 24.159
820 17.388
821 20.527
822 20.745
823 17.405
824 18.802
825 22.077
826 18.724
827 18.515
828 22.105
829 27.042
830 16.045
831 18.402
832 23.297
833 16.675
834 22.397
835 17.509
836 17.054
837 21.248
838 19.956
839 23.845
840 25.129
841 18.347
842 15.329
843 22.841
844 19.661
845 24.649
846 25.015
847 16.405
848 18.852
849 18.205
850 16.398
851 22.225
852 24.159
853 20.595
854 24.835
855 20.175
856 17.98
857 18.888
858 18.729
859 16.105
860 21.324
861 21.475
862 21.395
863 19.834
864 19.242
865 21.453
866 25.99
867 16.687
868 25.201
869 18.439
870 21.585
871 21.692
872 19.937
873 16.57
874 17.653
875 15.625
876 20.658
877 19.745
878 21.97
879 24.691
880 21.753
881 16.924
882 21.444
883 21.828
884 22.17
885 22.158
886 17.241
887 20.107
888 18.796
889 15.53
890 23.042
891 15.989
892 21.027
893 16.336
894 18.91
895 24.036
896 20.344
897 17.396
898 22.044
899 14.083
900 17.976
901 18.337
902 20.738
903 23.877
904 17.826
905 19.011
906 22.637
907 15.806
908 16.795
909 21.142
910 22.625
911 21.546
912 16.715
913 28.465
914 17.725
915 19.018
916 18.063
917 19.586
918 19.698
919 16.165
920 28.198
921 21.87
922 17.535
923 19.304
924 19.178
925 20.788
926 21.658
927 18.289
928 22.841
929 21.131
930 20.911
931 28.493
932 25.851
933 21.888
934 21.488
935 20.459
936 18.218
937 23.108
938 18.085
939 24.743
940 19.387
941 14.733
942 21.951
943 20.813
944 21.183
945 18.95
946 25.857
947 22.941
948 19.141
949 17.73
950 19.122
951 16.216
952 29.649
953 21.329
954 19.971
955 20.405
956 18.337
957 21.017
958 24.6
959 22.295
960 19.535
961 21.833
962 19.727
963 30.274
964 19.809
965 20.934
966 16.696
967 18.894
968 16.328
969 23.828
970 20.232
971 17.525
972 20.616
973 19.645
974 21.388
975 21.541
976 21.605
977 15.707
978 16.198
979 15.886
980 25.895
981 20.412
982 32.442
983 16.313
984 17.566
985 28.683
986 18.422
987 18.161
988 17.318
989 25.711
990 19.072
991 22.167
992 19.352
993 17.861
994 19.351
995 16.996
996 25.781
997 20.85
998 19.129
999 18.951
1000 20.859

Answer rating: 100% (QA)

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