Published by CQ Press, an Imprint of SAGE Publications, Inc. www.cqresearcher.com Future of Cars Are Americans ready for self-driving vehicles? C ars that drive themselves, long a staple of science fiction, could be in auto showrooms in the next few years. Automakers and researchers around the world are testing and refining technologies that allow a car to know where it is going and to communicate with other vehicles. Special sensors and software make the breakthroughs possible. Already, cars are selling with automated features designed to keep them in the correct lane, brake to avoid collisions and park themselves. Technology giant Google, which has tested vehicles with self-driving features on a half-million Google's driverless electric car has no steering wheel, accelerator or brake pedal and reaches a top speed of 25 mph. Although the prototype, unveiled on May 27, is far from ready for consumers, self-driving cars could begin appearing in auto showrooms within a few years. miles of roads, recently demonstrated a car with no steering wheel, accelerator or brake pedal. It remains unclear, however, how safe super-smart cars would be, how they would affect traffic congestion, how consumers and the nation would pay for the cars and the supporting infrastructure they would need and whether Americans will accept such a radical change in their relationship I N with automobiles. THIS REPORT S I D E CQ Researcher July 25, 2014 www.cqresearcher.com Volume 24, Number 27 Pages 625-648 THE ISSUES ....................627 BACKGROUND ................634 CHRONOLOGY ................635 CURRENT SITUATION ........640 AT ISSUE........................641 OUTLOOK ......................644 RECIPIENT OF SOCIETY OF PROFESSIONAL JOURNALISTS AWARD FOR EXCELLENCE N AMERICAN BAR ASSOCIATION SILVER GAVEL AWARD BIBLIOGRAPHY ................646 THE NEXT STEP ..............647 FUTURE OF CARS THE ISSUES 627 Will new technologies improve safety? Will new technologies reduce congestion? Will consumers buy automated cars? SIDEBARS AND GRAPHICS 628 629 Traffic Fatalities Hit FiveDecade Low Deadly accidents have decreased about 40 percent since 1972. 632 Fewer Teens, Young Adults Are Driving Only 41 percent of American teenagers had a driver's license in 2012. BACKGROUND 634 636 638 8,000 Cars to 8 Million Beginning in 1908, Henry Ford's Model T and assembly lines made cars widely affordable. Nation Transformed Americans embraced the freedom cars gave, despite congestion and pollution. Improved Technology Self-driving cars have moved from science fiction to nearreality. 635 Chronology Key events since 1908. 636 638 When Cars Are Smarter, Roads Can Be Smarter, Too \"Everything's changed but our highways.\" Regulatory Action State and federal policy makers are just beginning to deal with changing automobile technology. 641 At Issue: Should states replace the gas tax with a tax on miles traveled? FOR FURTHER RESEARCH 644 Highway Funding The U.S. system for financing roads and bridges is under stress. 645 For More Information Organizations to contact. OUTLOOK 643 646 Bibliography Selected sources used. Ubiquitous Taxis Automated cars may someday show up only when consumers need them. 647 The Next Step Additional articles. 647 Citing CQ Researcher Sample bibliography formats. Cover: Google 626 CQ Researcher MANAGING EDITOR: Thomas J. Billitteri tjb@sagepub.com ASSISTANT MANAGING EDITORS: Maryann Haggerty, maryann.haggerty@sagepub.com, Kathy Koch, kathy.koch@sagepub.com SENIOR CONTRIBUTING EDITOR: Thomas J. Colin tom.colin@sagepub.com CONTRIBUTING WRITERS: Brian Beary, Marcia Clemmitt, Sarah Glazer, Kenneth Jost, Reed Karaim, Peter Katel, Robert Kiener, Barbara Mantel, Tom Price, Jennifer Weeks SENIOR PROJECT EDITOR: Olu B. Davis EDITORIAL ASSISTANT: Ethan McLeod FACT CHECKERS: Eva P. Dasher, Michelle Harris, Nancie Majkowski INTERN: Kaya Yurieff Laser Is Key to Self-Driving Cars Multiple technologies let vehicle study its environment. CURRENT SITUATION 640 Self-Driving Cars Allowed in Four States, D.C. Other states are considering such laws. July 25, 2014 Volume 24, Number 27 An Imprint of SAGE Publications, Inc. VICE PRESIDENT AND EDITORIAL DIRECTOR, HIGHER EDUCATION GROUP: Michele Sordi EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, ONLINE LIBRARY AND REFERENCE PUBLISHING: Todd Baldwin Copyright 2014 CQ Press, an Imprint of SAGE Publications, Inc. SAGE reserves all copyright and other rights herein, unless previously specified in writing. No part of this publication may be reproduced electronically or otherwise, without prior written permission. Unauthorized reproduction or transmission of SAGE copyrighted material is a violation of federal law carrying civil fines of up to $100,000. CQ Press is a registered trademark of Congressional Quarterly Inc. CQ Researcher (ISSN 1056-2036) is printed on acidfree paper. Published weekly, except: (March wk. 4) (May wk. 4) (July wk. 1) (Aug. wks. 3, 4) (Nov. wk. 4) and (Dec. wks. 3, 4). Published by SAGE Publications, Inc., 2455 Teller Rd., Thousand Oaks, CA 91320. Annual full-service subscriptions start at $1,054. For pricing, call 1-800-818-7243. To purchase a CQ Researcher report in print or electronic format (PDF), visit www.cqpress.com or call 866-427-7737. Single reports start at $15. Bulk purchase discounts and electronic-rights licensing are also available. Periodicals postage paid at Thousand Oaks, California, and at additional mailing offices. POSTMASTER: Send address changes to CQ Researcher, 2300 N St., N.W., Suite 800, Washington, DC 20037. Future of Cars BY DAVID HOSANSKY THE ISSUES \"It's a golden age for innovation in automobiles,\" says Gary Silberg, an autohe car that Google unmobile industry specialist at veiled on May 27 is the consulting firm KPMG. \"It like no other. can be an absolute sea change.\" Never mind its odd apIn addition to self-driving pearance, which observers cars, related technologies alliken to a cross between a ready in use include: golf cart and a Volkswagen C r a s h - avo i d a n c e . Beetle. Or the limited perforEquipped with radars, cammance of its electric engine eras and other tools, cars can a 25 mph top speed and detect when a front-end cola range of about 100 miles. lision is about to occur. A The really noteworthy number of higher-end modfeature of the latest Google els now include systems to prototype car is its controls. alert the driver that something Or, rather, the lack of them. is wrong or even to autoThe vehicle has no steermatically take action, such as ing wheel, accelerator or applying the brakes if the vebrake pedal. Even though hicle is at risk of rear-ending Google and automobile manthe car in front. ufacturers have been work Assisted driving. Veing on technologies that allow hicle manufacturers are proMotorists leaving Chicago for the Memorial Day vehicles, at least under cerviding options that can be weekend jam the Kennedy Expressway on May 23. tain circumstances, to drive activated to control cars in Traffic problems along with collisions and pollution themselves, the Google car certain situations with the could be reduced by self-driving cars, according to startled observers because it use of advanced sensors and boosters of automated auto technology. But some would permit no human software. These include experts warn of possible downsides of autonomous cars, including technological failure or deliberate control except pressing a butadaptive cruise control, which sabotage. Others say such cars could actually ton to start or stop it. Desmonitors distances to other increase pollution and congestion. tinations could be chosen vehicles; lane assist, which with a smartphone app. warns the driver if the vehi\"They won't have a steering wheel, say this time the promises could be- cle is veering from its lane or even accelerator pedal or brake pedal be- come reality. corrects the course of the car; and Yet, it remains unclear how safe parking assist, which automatically cause they don't need them,\" said a Google blog post. \"Our software and super-smart cars would be, how they parallel parks the car. would affect traffic congestion, how sensors do all the work.\" 1 Vehicle-to-vehicle communicaThe prototype, which is far from ready individuals and the nation would pay tions. Motor vehicles in the next few for consumer use, is just the latest in- for them and whether Americans are years are expected to begin using wirenovation in the suddenly fast-moving ready to accept such a radical change less technology to communicate their field of vehicle technology. After decades in their century-plus relationship with position, speed and direction to each in which engineering improvements automobiles. Legislators, regulators and other as well as to certain road infrawere, for the most part, rolled out in- the public have just begun to consid- structure, such as traffic lights. Officials crementally, dramatic advances could er these issues. at the National Highway Traffic Safety Enabling the breakthroughs are a Administration (NHTSA), who are worksoon change not only the vehicles themselves, but also society's approach to combination of specially designed sen- ing to facilitate the technology, believe personal transportation. Other gee- sors and sophisticated software sys- it will dramatically improve road safewhiz transportation technologies fly- tems that interpret data about the road ty by alerting drivers if a nearby vehiing cars and personal jet packs have environment and relay it to the driver cle is about to run a red light or is remained fantasies, but many experts or directly to the car. otherwise operating unsafely. Getty Images/Scott Olson T www.cqresearcher.com July 25, 2014 627 FUTURE OF CARS Self-Driving Cars Allowed in Four States, D.C. Four states and the District of Columbia have laws permitting the driving or testing of self-driving cars, and seven rejected such laws. Eleven other states have recently considered similar legislation. Laws Allowing Testing or Driving of Autonomous Vehicles, by State Wash. Ore. N.D. Mont. Idaho Wis. S.D. Wyo. Neb. Utah Colo. Kan. W.Va. Va. Ky. Calif. Ariz. Okla. N.M. Tenn. Ark. Miss. Texas La. Del. N.C. S.C. Ala. R.I. Conn. N.J. Pa. Ind. Ohio Mo. Mass. N.Y. Mich. Iowa Ill. Nev. N.H. Vt. Maine Minn. D.C. Md. Ga. Fla. Alaska Passed Considered Failed* Hawaii * Bills did not move past committee or were voted down Source: Gabriel Weiner and Bryant Walker Smith, \"Automated Driving: Legislative and Regulatory Action,\" The Center for Internet and Society, Stanford Law School, http://tinyurl.com/8l23jrl While self-driving cars may seem futuristic, they are expected to begin appearing in showrooms within a few years. Some cars already include so many advanced features that they provide a preview of the technology. A New York Times reviewer of Nissan's 2014 Infiniti Q50, for example, talked about letting the car manage its own speed and adjust its course, even on highways with curves. \"I found myself driving the Infiniti on surprisingly long highway stretches without touching the accelerator, brake pedal or steering wheel,\" the reviewer wrote. \"Girded with digital-, camera- and radar-based co-pilots, the Q50 charts a course toward the selfdriving cars of tomorrow.\" 2 Although Nissan, perhaps the most aggressive car manufacturers in this area, pledges to begin bringing selfdriving cars to market by the end of 628 CQ Researcher the decade, other carmakers are keeping pace. The 2014 Mercedes S-Class, for example, offers several optional autonomous driving features, including steering, lane-maintenance and acceleration/braking at both city and highway speeds. Volvo is readying an adaptive cruise control for sale later this year that includes steering assist, enabling the car to follow the vehicle ahead of it. General Motors and Ford are also advancing automated technologies with the goal of offering selfdriving cars within a few years. The GM Cadillac SRX test vehicle can be taken for a spin on test tracks without the driver touching the steering wheel or brakes, while Ford unveiled a prototype self-driving car last year. And Google since 2010 has tested a fleet of conventional cars equipped with self-driving features on more than 500,000 miles of roads. Boosters envision a future in which the road experience is entirely transformed. If technology reliably enables vehicles to communicate with each other and use sensors to maintain safe distances, most collisions could be avoided. Congestion could be reduced (along with excessive pollution associated with cars inching forward in traffic jams) if cars could safely follow each other much more closely while traveling at high speeds. Platoons of trucks could ship goods more efficiently and safely. A fleet of automated cars could even reshape the transportation system, as people might choose to summon self-driving taxis for commutes or errands rather than purchasing their own car. When Google announced widespread testing of self-driving vehicles in 2010, the company explained its motivation in terms of sweeping benefits to society: \"Our goal is to help prevent traffic accidents, free up people's time and reduce carbon emissions by fundamentally changing car use.\" 3 The company's plans for marketing the technology remain unknown, although executives at traditional carmakers are nervously wondering if it may emerge as a competitor. 4 The company has stressed that selfdriving cars would benefit some of the most vulnerable members of society, such as elderly people who can no longer drive. In a YouTube video, a Google engineer chatted with a blind man, Steve Mahan, as he used a selfdriving car to run errands. \"I love it,\" said Mahan. \"Where this would change my life is to give me the independence and the flexibility to go [to] the places I both want to go and need to go.\" 5 The potential of automated cars, however, can go only so far in meeting the nation's transportation challenges. Even if such vehicles achieve their potential, they are not expected to compensate for an overloaded aviation system and lack of high-speed rail, or put an end to motor vehicle Trafc Fatalities Hit Five-Decade Low Motor vehicle deaths fell to 32,479 in 2011, the fewest in nearly ve decades, before rising slightly in 2012. Fatalities peaked at 54,589 in 1972. The number of deaths per 100 million miles traveled declined from six to 1.1 from 1954 to 2012 thanks to improved automobile safety, better road designs and heightened awareness of drunken driving. Fatalities (in thousands) 60 Motor Vehicle Fatalities, 1954-2012 50 40 30 1954 '56 '58 1960 '62 '64 '66 '68 1970 '72 '74 '76 '78 1980 '82 '84 '86 '88 1990 '92 '94 '96 '98 2000 '02 '04 '06 '08 2010 '12 8 7 6 Motor Vehicle Fatalities Per 100 Million Miles Traveled, 1954 2012 1954-2012 Getty Images/William Th Thomas Cain Fatalities/100 million vehicle miles traveled (VMT) 5 4 3 2 1 1954 '56 '58 1960 '62 '64 '66 '68 1970 '72 '74 '76 '78 1980 '82 '84 '86 '88 1990 '92 '94 '96 '98 2000 '02 '04 '06 '08 2010 '12 Source: 2011-12 data from \"Trafc Safety Facts, 2012 Data,\" National Highway Trafc Safety Administration (NHTSA), U.S. Department of Transportation, May 2014, http://tinyurl.com/km6pmvc; 1975-2010 data from NHTSA, Fatality Analysis Reporting System; 1954-74 data from National Center for Health Statistics, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services and state accident summaries emissions that contribute to air pollution and climate change. In fact, some experts warn that this technological leap, like any other advance, comes with potential downsides. Automated cars and vehicle-tovehicle communications could make traffic dangerously susceptible to technological failure or to deliberate sabotage, and they wouldn't do away with some motorists speeding or otherwise maneuvering their cars aggressively. While the new technologies could potentially reduce the annual death toll of about 33,000 people on U.S. roads, experts worry that a major accident or a death caused by a self-driving www.cqresearcher.com car could have much different ramifications than one caused by a negligent driver. Even if autonomous cars save thousands of lives, \"One headline, 'Machine Kills a Child,' trumps 30,000 obituaries,\" said Bryant Walker Smith, a fellow at the Center for Automotive Research at Stanford University. 6 Others caution that automated cars, far from making transportation less stressful, could further clog roads, cause more air pollution, or lead to more sprawling development if they are so convenient people don't mind sitting in them for long commutes. \"If the transition isn't managed ap- propriately, there could be unanticipated negative consequences as a result of behavior changes and land-use changes,\" says University of Texas computer science professor Peter Stone, who is researching future approaches to traffic management. \"Personally, I'm excited about it. But you have to adopt a little bit of cautious optimism with any new technology,\" he says. \"I think it would be nave to say it will have an entirely positive effect on society.\" The future price of automated cars is also uncertain. The light-detection and ranging system atop a Google self-driving car, known as lidar, costs July 25, 2014 629 FUTURE OF CARS about $70,000 and enables the vehicle to scan its surroundings and determine its location. Additional sensors, software and technology can add another $30,000. But, as with other technology, observers expect the costs to plunge with mass production. 7 Even once the technology is available and prices fall, it may be many years before self-driving cars become widespread. Americans are not as quick to buy new cars as in the past because cars are engineered to last longer, and it is not clear whether consumers will soon warm up to the concept of robotic vehicles. A mix of traditional and automated cars on the highways may place new strains on infrastructure, as engineers have begun looking into the possibility of designating lanes for each and redesigning intersections and traffic lights to accommodate the different types of vehicles. Automotive experts say self-driving features will be phased in slowly, as vehicles transition from being partially to more fully autonomous. \"You have to introduce the technology on a gradual basis,\" says Brad Stertz, a spokesman for Audi of America. \"It's not like in two years we're all going be in the back seat watching movies.\" Rapid automotive technological progress has caught the attention of policy makers. Four states and the District of Columbia have passed laws to regulate automated vehicles, and about a dozen others have begun debating legislation, spurred in part by NHTSA recommendations urging states to begin looking into the legal and safety ramifications. (See map, p. 628.) For instance, who is liable when an autonomous vehicle gets into an accident? Other countries, especially those with large automakers, are moving ahead on regulations to permit selfdriving cars. Last year, for example, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe took a ride in a self-driving car and pledged to support the technology as part of his economic program. 8 630 CQ Researcher This comes as other technological advances are increasing the financial strain on the U.S. system for building and maintaining roads and bridges. More fuel-efficient cars, particularly electric ones, mean drivers buy less gasoline. That translates into less revenue for highway trust funds, which finance roads with money from gasoline taxes. Declining gas receipts are sparking battles in Washington and state capitals around the country, as policy makers scramble to make up the difference. (See Current Situation, p. 643.) As emerging automotive technologies promise to reshape the transportation system, here are some of the key questions being debated: Will new technologies improve safety? Although automobile accident rates have dropped significantly in recent decades, about 33,000 people still die annually on American roads and more than 3 million are injured, according to NHTSA. Annual cost to the economy: $277 billion, according to the agency. 9 Many experts say new technologies, including vehicle-to-vehicle communications and self-driving cars, will make roads safer, because at least 90 percent of accidents are caused at least in part by human error. As safety systems become more automated, human error will become a less important factor, they say. 10 \"We think there's a great potential here to improve the safety of transportation,\" says David Zuby, vice president and chief research officer of the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, an Arlington, Va., group funded by auto insurers. Over the past several decades, carmakers have incorporated such safety technologies as air bags, antilock brakes, electronic stability controls and, more recently, rearview cameras and adaptive headlights, which automatically adjust as the car changes direction and speed. These innovations, coupled with improvements in road design and heightened public awareness of the dangers of drunken driving, have reduced motor vehicle deaths about 40 percent from a peak of 54,589 in 1972. 11 (See graphic, p. 629.) Some new higher-end models now offer front-crash prevention systems that use sensors, such as cameras, radar or lidar, to detect when a car is getting dangerously close to the vehicle in front of it. These systems generally are designed to alert the driver and pre-charge the brakes to maximize their effect. In some cases, the system brakes the car if the driver doesn't respond. Carmakers are also beginning to offer vehicles with lane departure warning systems, which detect how close the car is to lane markings and alert the driver if the car is about to drift across the line while the turn signal is off. A more advanced variant, known as lane keeping assist, automatically keeps the car centered in its lane. As much as these technologies are designed to improve safety, experts see far bigger gains in the future. Part of the reason: NHTSA is working on regulations to foster vehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure communication systems, which will alert vehicles to fast-developing dangerous situations nearby. For example, if highway traffic suddenly comes to a halt, the drivers of approaching cars will be notified so they will have ample time to brake even if the backup is around a curve and not yet visible. Or, if a driver is speeding toward an intersection where the light is about to turn red, the light in the other direction may remain red for a few additional seconds to prevent other cars from being struck. Such connected vehicle technology would address about 80 percent of crash scenarios that involve non- www.cqresearcher.com constant speed while human-controlled cars zip around them. \"Even if tomorrow the Google car went on sale and was guaranteed never to crash, it would take 20 to 30 years before everyone had one in their driveway,\" Zuby says. \"There's definitely a concern for any intermediate period.\" There also are worries about drivers abusing the technology. An internal FBI report speculates that autonomous cars could become \"lethal rate increasing to 10 to 15 percent with more advanced systems that automatically applied the brakes, Zuby says. But lane departure warning systems have an inconsistent effect on safety. Some of the institute's research has suggested no benefits, although the group's most recent analysis of one model found that a lane departure warning system combined with forward collision warning reduced crashes with other vehicles by 14 percent. AFP/Getty Images/Yoshikazu Tsuno impaired drivers, according to NHTSA. \"This technology could help prevent the majority of types of crashes that typically occur in the real world, such as crashes at intersections or while changing lanes,\" the agency said. 12 The technology could not greatly improve safety until it has been installed in a large number of vehicles that can communicate. Although it can take some time for such vehicles to become common the average American owns a car for about five years, and used cars remain on the road for many years some experts predict there will be aftermarket products that will enable even an older car to communicate with other vehicles and infrastructure. \"I think you'll see a full-court press, with aftermarket products and even apps on smartphones, to get to the critical threshold as soon as possible,\" says Leo McCloskey, senior vice president for technical programs at the Washington-based Intelligent Transportation Society of America. A report last year by the Eno Center for Transportation, a Washington think tank, concluded that traffic deaths could drop by 21,700 per year if 90 percent of vehicles were self-driving. Automated vehicles \"can be programmed to not break traffic laws. They do not drink and drive. Their reaction times are quicker,\" the report stated. 13 Safety experts, however, say much will depend on the safety standards the government sets for the vehicles and on how the technologies work in practice. Otherwise, said Clarence Ditlow, executive director of the Washington-based consumer advocacy group Center for Auto Safety, \"you could be substituting computer errors for human errors.\" 14 Safety also could become compromised as vehicles with different levels of technology share the same roads, whether because drivers are reluctant to accept the technology or because they can't afford to do so. Automated cars, for example, could be closely following each other and maintaining a Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe gets the feel of Toyota's autonomous vehicle in Tokyo on Nov. 9, 2013. Abe also tried out driverless Hondas and Nissans. He has pledged to support driverless technology as part of his economic program. weapons,\" with criminals using them as self-driving getaway cars, according to the website of the British newspaper The Guardian, which said it obtained a copy of the report. 15 Underscoring both the benefits and limits of new technologies, a series of studies by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety found that recently installed automotive safety systems are generating uneven results. The institute found that cars with forward collisionavoidance systems that warned the driver of upcoming dangers had a 7 percent reduction in accidents with other vehicles, with the accident reduction Experts wonder whether drivers could become so reliant on automated cars that they stopped paying attention to the road and were unable to respond quickly if the technology failed. There may be an analog with the aviation industry, where some pilots appear to become so dependent on technology that their flying skills get rusty. Last month, for example, a National Transportation Safety Board panel blamed pilot error for the July 6, 2013, crash of Asiana Airlines Flight 214 at San Francisco International Airport, saying the crew mismanaged the landing after relying too much on automated July 25, 2014 631 FUTURE OF CARS Fewer Teens, Young Adults Are Driving Only 41 percent of American teenagers had a driver's license in 2012, down from 56 percent in 1982. Young adults in their 20s and 30s also are driving less, with the number of licensed 20- to 24-year-olds falling 12 percentage points, 25- to 29-year-olds nine points and 30to 39-year-olds eight points. Percentage of Licensed Drivers by Age Group, 1982 and 2012 100% 80 60 40 20 0 19 and 19 and d under 20-24 20-24 20-24 2 25-29 25-29 25-29 2 30-39 30-39 -39 3 40-59 40-59 40-59 5 60 7 60-70 60-70 70 plu 70-plus 70-plus lus Source: \"Table DL-20, Distribution of Licensed Drivers 2012, by 1982 Sex and Percentage in Each Age Group and Relation to Population,\" 2012 Federal Highway Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation, January 2014, http://tinyurl.com/lprscyo; \"Table DL-20 Highway Statistics 1982,\" Federal Highway Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation, September 1983, p. 32, http://tinyurl.com/maq8ofy flight controls that they did not entirely understand. Zuby says it will be a major challenge to design technologies that improve safety without allowing drivers to pay even less attention than they do now. \"If your car is nearly all the way automated, drivers are going to be tempted to take advantage of that and engage in things that are not related to monitoring what is going on around them,\" he says. \"You could have a problem if the system depends on them knowing when to take over. That's something that people who are designing these systems are struggling with.\" Will new technologies reduce congestion? On the congested streets of New York City, vehicles have barely picked up speed since horse-and-buggy days. A recent study, using GPS devices in taxicabs, found the average pace in Manhattan on weekdays is 9.5 miles per 632 CQ Researcher hour. That's \"about the speed of a farmyard chicken at full gallop.\" On a busy day, when speeds drop to 7.5 miles per hour, cars would barely be able to keep pace with a horse and cart or a Central Park jogger. 16 Such driving speeds are not unusual for major cities and that's assuming favorable conditions. Accidents or relatively minor snowstorms can spawn seemingly interminable gridlock. Many Atlanta drivers spent six hours or more to travel a few miles on Jan. 28, when a couple inches of snow brought traffic to a standstill. \"This was, hands down, the worst day of my life,\" said Evan McLean of Canton, Ga., who spent two and a half hours without any forward progress. 17 Traffic congestion is estimated to cost the United States more than $100 billion a year in wasted time and fuel, not to mention air pollution caused by idling cars. 18 The effect on quality of life in the United States and overseas where heavy traffic in growing megacities can be even worse is incalculable. Those who say new automotive technologies could reduce traffic delays cite several reasons: Accidents should become less frequent, especially as anticollision systems and vehicle-to-vehicle communication become common. This would result in far fewer accident-related backups. Vehicles that can communicate with each other and with roadside infrastructure may be able to safely proceed through intersections with stop signs without stopping when no other vehicles are present or by alternating with each other more efficiently when traffic exists. In time, emerging technologies may even eliminate the need for traffic signals and stop signs. Traffic flows are expected to become more efficient. There would be fewer incidents of human drivers trying to save time with maneuvers such as cutting in and out of lanes, which may gain a few moments for an individual car but slow down traffic overall. Automated vehicles will be able to follow each other much more closely and at higher speeds because they will have information about what the cars around them are planning to do. Thus, highways could safely accommodate substantially more cars and trucks. \"You can pack a lot more vehicles on the highways, they can run optimally to reduce traffic jams, and you don't have all the lane changing that slows traffic down,\" says John O'Dell, senior editor of Edmunds, the carshopping website, and a longtime observer of the automobile industry. \"Cars will be able to form platoons and increase the speed at which they can safely travel.\" \"It's not going to eliminate congestion, but I think we're going to see a dramatic reduction,\" says McCloskey of the Intelligent Transportation Society of America. A 2011 study by Columbia University indicated that fully automated vehicles could eventually increase highway capacity to nearly four times current levels because the cars will be able to safely travel more closely together. At present, vehicles take up just 5 percent of highway capacity (about 2,200 vehicles per lane per hour) because human drivers require considerable space around their cars to ensure safety. But if all cars were automated, the spacing between vehicles would drop from about 150 feet to 20, the researchers estimated. 19 Other analysts, however, doubt the new technologies will end traffic jams. \"It can help around the margins,\" says Richard Wallace, director of transportation systems analysis at the Center for Automotive Research, in Ann Arbor, Mich., which studies trends and changes related to the automotive industry. (The center is not related to the similarly named center at Stanford University.) \"But there really are no solutions for too many vehicles in the same place at the same time. To the extent that we're car dependent, there's only so much capacity out there. New York City rush hour is not going to be aided.\" Some even worry that autonomous vehicles, far from easing gridlock, may make it worse. The reason: Motorists may be more willing to sit in traffic if they can work or read while their car is driving. If the technology advances to the point that people can send their cars on errands, such as picking up groceries or even their children, that could further clog roads with empty vehicles. \"I know that people are already careless in their car use,\" says Robin Chase, an entrepreneur and cofounder of car-sharing services Buzzcar and Zipcar. \"When they don't have to be in their cars, they will be more profligate. The attitude can be, 'Even if my car sits in traffic for two hours, what do I care?' \" www.cqresearcher.com Will consumers buy automated cars? The love affair between Americans and cars runs deep. From an Oldsmobile Rocket 88 to a sporty red Corvette, automobiles have been the passkeys to freedom and selfreliance. As heralded by the earliest rock n' roll songs and hit movies such as \"American Graffiti\" and \"Thelma and Louise,\" Americans, it seems, are destined to be behind the wheel. So why would motorists voluntarily give up driving and hand over the controls to self-driving cars? Some who follow the automotive market say consumers may be receptive because driving has lost some of its appeal. \"Do you want to drive in your car when in reality you're stuck in traffic, you're frustrated, you can't find a place to park?\" asks entrepreneur Chase. \"In daily commuting to work and running errands with your kids, I don't think many people say, 'I love driving.' I feel like every time I drive, I'm shortening my life through frustration.\" O'Dell of Edmunds, who lives in the congested Los Angeles area, feels much the same. \"I'm like a great many people of my generation who grew up thinking of driving as an escape and as a fun thing to do because the roads weren't as crowded when we were 16 or 17 years old,\" says O'Dell, who got his first driver's license in 1963. \"Now it's no longer fun. I'd be happy if I could push a button and lean back and let the car do the driving.\" But polls indicate it may take some time before the public warms up to the new technology. In April, a survey by the Pew Research Center concluded that Americans were roughly split over whether they would be willing to ride in an automated car. Forty-eight percent of respondents said they would, while 50 percent said they would not. 20 A survey last year commissioned by the Chubb Group of Insurance Companies found that two-thirds of re- spondents would not feel comfortable in a self-piloted car, and only 18 percent said they would buy one. 21 An aversion to self-driving cars is understandable, according to Stanford's Smith. \"It's the fear of robots,\" he said. \"We saw that in the Toyota unintended acceleration cases, when people would describe their horror at feeling like they could lose control of their car.\" 22 In those sometimes-fatal cases, cars sped up uncontrollably, seemingly on their own. At first Toyota blamed driver error, but it eventually recalled millions of cars for design defects. In March, the company agreed to a $1.2 billion U.S. criminal penalty and admitted it had lied about the causes. 23 But the Chubb survey also revealed some ambivalence, especially about some of the features that enable cars to drive themselves. For example, 88 percent of respondents said they would pay extra for a system that alerts a driver if the vehicle inadvertently drifts out of its lane, 77 percent want a car to automatically apply the brakes to avoid or minimize a crash, and 70 percent were open to an adaptive cruise control system that would maintain both a set speed and a safe distance from other traffic. In a recent study of the issue, the consulting company KPMG concluded that consumers would warm up to the idea of self-driving cars as they become more aware of the potential advantages. They would even be willing to pay a premium of 15 percent if it meant a better experience on the road. The KPMG team conducted a series of focus groups. At the beginning of each two-hour discussion, the groups were roughly split, with about six in 10 people saying they would be willing to ride in an autonomous car. But that number climbed to nine in 10 or even reached unanimity after the groups were asked how they would feel if the drive time could be more predictable and shorter and if the vehicle was certified by an organization such as NHTSA. 24 July 25, 2014 633 FUTURE OF CARS won approval of a bill last year regulating self-driving cars. \"But you talk to some of the older folks, who have trouble seeing at night or have trouble driving, they're excited. And a lot of younger people don't want to be bothered driving they say just give me mass transit or a car that can get me from point A to point B.\" (See graphic, p. 632.) Automated cars may prove to be especially appealing to people with disabilities as well as to the elderly an increasingly important demographic as baby boomers age. Self-driving cars will \"make people more independent,\" said Maarten Sierhuis, director of Nissan's Research Center in Silicon Valley. 25 One way to ease consumer fears may be to provide an option to take over the controls. \"I would long for the day when I can push a button and the car will do all my work on my miserable commute,\" says O'Dell. \"But on a nice weekend drive, I'd want to turn off that autonomous function.\" BACKGROUND 8,000 Cars to 8 Million n the mid-1880s, after decades in which inventors worked on various approaches to self-propelled road vehicles. In 1885, German engineer Karl Benz created the first gasoline-powered motor vehicle, which had three bicyclestyle wire wheels and a four-stroke engine. In the same year, another German engineer Gottlieb Daimler attached a four-stroke gas engine to a bicycle, creating the first motorcycle. When the 20th century began, there were an estimated 8,000 automobiles in the United States. The technology, which promised to transform long-distance travel, initially evoked mixed reactions. I A futuristic ad from the mid-1950s shows a family playing dominoes in their selfdriving car. Sponsored by \"America's Independent Electric Light and Power Companies,\" or by individual local utilities, the ad appeared in newspapers and magazines and reads in part, \"Electricity may be the driver. One day your car may speed along an electric superhighway, its speed and steering automatically controlled by electronic devices embedded in the road. . . . No traffic jams . . . no collisions . . . no driver fatigue.\" \"A vast majority moved to wanting it and even be willing to pay a premium for it,\" says KPMG's Silberg. Automotive experts see potential generational differences in attitudes. Elderly people whose reflexes have slowed and younger people who may be more focused on texting and Internet con- 634 CQ Researcher nectivity tend to be the most accepting of the idea of turning over the wheel. \"A lot of people who are in the 40s and 50s and enjoy driving have no interest in the self-driving cars,\" says Michigan state Sen. Mike Kowall, a Republican who is vice-chairman of the Senate Transportation Committee, who Continued on p. 636 Chronology Early 1900s Car manufacturers introduce major innovations such as electric starter, hydraulic brakes, automatic transmission and independent suspension. 1908 Henry Ford's Ford Motor Co. builds first production Model T. As Model T prices fall, millions of Americans will become car owners. 1965 Consumer advocate Ralph Nader assails car industry's approach to safety in his expos, Unsafe at Any Speed, which accuses car manufacturers of resisting safety features such as seat belts, and ushers in era of greater attention to automotive safety. 1970s-1990s Concerns about traffic, air pol- 1913 Revolutionizing American manufacturing, Ford installs first conveyer belt assembly line, reducing costs. lution and gas shortages grow; consumers begin focusing on fuel efficiency and reliability. 1921 Federal Highway Act provides matching funds to states to create national highway system. 1970 President Richard M. Nixon signs Clean Air Act, regulating motor vehicle emissions. 1925 American inventor Francis P. Houdina demonstrates radio-controlled, driverless car in New York City traffic. 1973 Oil embargo imposed by members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) leads to gas shortages. 1939 General Motors (GM) exhibit at New York World's Fair depicts radio-controlled, driverless electric cars powered by circuits embedded in the roadway. 1950s-60s America's love affair with cars heats up after World War II, as consumers flock to muscle cars and United States builds more highways. 1956 President Dwight D. Eisenhower signs Federal-Aid Highway Act of 1956, authorizing construction of Interstate Highway System. www.cqresearcher.com 1975 Congress requires corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards. 1979 With the Big Three U.S. automakers facing increasing competition from overseas competitors, Congress authorizes $1.5 billion loan to foundering Chrysler Corp., keeping the company in business. 1999 Japanese carmaker Honda releases the Insight, the first hybrid car to be mass-marketed in the United States. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) says it gets 61 mpg in city driving, 70 mpg on the highway. 2000s Development of more advanced vehicles, including automated cars, speeds up. 2005 Five no-driver vehicles successfully navigate a 132-mile course in Nevada in a competition sponsored by U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). 2010 Google announces its self-driving cars have logged more than 140,000 miles. 2011 Nevada becomes first state to establish regulations governing testing self-driving cars. 2013 National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) releases guidelines to states on regulating testing of self-driving vehicles. . . . Google invests $258 million in Uber Technologies, whose mobile apps run car services. 2014 NHTSA announces it will take steps to enable vehicle-to-vehicle communication (Feb. 3). . . . Google unveils automated car without a steering wheel or gas or brake pedals (May 27). . . . GM recalls 8 million more cars for safety reasons following previous recall of more than 20 million earlier this year (June 30). . . . Congressional Budget Office warns that a shortage of federal highway funds will force delays in federal payments to states. . . . Sens. Bob Corker, R-Tenn., and Chris Murphy, D-Conn., propose raising gas tax by 12 centers per gallon, indexed to inflation, to provide more highway funds. July 25, 2014 635 FUTURE OF CARS Laser Is Key to Self-Driving Cars Combination of technologies lets vehicle study its environment. lthough self-driving vehicles may seem futuristic, most cars already come equipped with some automated features. Cruise control keeps a car's speed steady on highways, antilock brakes prevent brakes from locking up and newer stability and traction control systems deter skidding or rollovers. Some higher-end models offer advanced systems to keep the vehicles within their lane, adjust the speed while in cruise control to maintain a safe distance from other cars and sound a warning or apply the brakes to avoid a forward collision. These features rely on sensors, such as radar or cameras, that scan the environment and relay the information to onboard software systems. To move beyond computerized control of key steering, acceleration and braking systems and build a vehicle that can drive itself, three additional features are required: sensors to detect what is happening around the vehicle, a mapping system so the vehicle can follow a route and software to pull all the information together. 1 With Google's self-driving cars, the primary sensor is a laser range finder, or lidar, mounted on the roof. It generates a threedimensional map of the environment as the car moves along. Because it can see in all directions, it may gather more information than a human driver. Additional information comes from other sensors. These include four radar devices two each on the front and rear bumpers that enable the car to detect other traffic; a camera to detect traffic lights; GPS; an inertial measurement unit A Continued from p. 634 As long as automobiles were beyond the easy reach of all but the wealthy, they spurred resentment as playthings of the rich that posed a public safety threat and frightened livestock. A letter writer to The New York Times referred to car owners as the \"idle and vicious rich.\" 26 But that view began to change when industrialist Henry Ford made cars widely affordable. After introducing the iconic Model T in 1908, Ford revolutionized automobiles and American manufacturing by installing the first conveyer belt-based assembly line in his Highland Park, Mich., car factory in 1913. Thanks to modern assembly line techniques that reduced manufacturing costs, the Ford Motor Co. built 636 CQ Researcher (which incorporates gyroscopes and accelerometers); and wheel encoders that work together to determine the car's location and speed and to track its movements. The car's software combines those measurements with highresolution maps of roads and terrain, producing various data models so it can avoid obstacles and comply with traffic laws. Even though these maps are very detailed and supplement GPS measurements (which can be off by several yards), Google engineers also drive along the planned route to gather more information about the environment. That way, when the car drives itself, it can compare current observations with previous ones, enabling it to differentiate between pedestrians and fixed objects such as light poles. 2 Because the autonomous car has to contend with human drivers in other traditional vehicles, engineers have added programming to keep it from being too passive. When approaching a four-way intersection, for example, it stops and yields. But if other cars do not yield as expected, the autonomous car will advance a little to demonstrate to other drivers where it is trying to go. Without such programming, Google engineers have discovered, an autonomous car has trouble functioning in an environment where other cars are driven by humans. As sophisticated as the cars are, there are certain things they cannot do. For example, Google has found that a car cannot decipher the hand gestures of a traffic police officer. Instead, it will detect \"there's a person standing in the middle of the more than 15 million Model T's in the United States by 1927, becoming the world's largest car manufacturer. The cars were plain to look at each was black because that paint color dried quickly but they were affordable, selling for as little as about $260, or about $3,500 in 2014 dollars. Ford's innovations marked the beginning of America's car culture, transforming the automobile from a luxury item for the wealthy to essential transportation. By 1920, U.S. vehicle ownership had increased to 8 million. America Transformed F ew inventions have changed the nation as much as the automobile. Dirt roads that worked well for horses would trap early cars in mud. Gas stations and road maps were non-existent. When Horatio Nelson Jackson and a co-driver became the first to drive across the country in 1903, their countless breakdowns highlighted the need for more durable automobiles and better roads. Alice Huyler Ramsey, a 22-year-old housewife and mother from Hackensack, N.J., chronicled her misadventures when she became the first woman to make the cross-country drive in 1909: \"At Fort Steele, Wyoming, we pulled up short at a dead-end in the road where the bridge over the swollen North Platte had been washed out. I sent my passengers ahead on foot across a paralleling Union Pacific railroad trestle and then bumped the Maxwell for three- Google/Link: http://is.gd/JwEO70 An image from an April 28 testing video by Google shows how the company's self-driving car perceives nearby moving traffic, stopped cars and traffic signals. Inset at lower left shows how the road would look to a human inside the car. The light-detection and ranging system atop the self-driving car, a type of technology known as lidar, allows the vehicle to scan its surroundings and determine its location. road waving their hands in a funny way,\" said Google software lead Dmitri Dolgov. At that point, he said, the car will act conservatively or it will ask the human behind the wheel to take control. 3 David Hosansky quarters of a mile on the ties to the opposite side. Across Wyoming the roads threaded through privately owned cattle ranches. My companions were obliged to take turns opening and closing the gates of the fences which surrounded them as we drove through. If we got lost we'd take to the high ground and search the horizon for the nearest telephone poles with the most wires. It was a sure way of locating the transcontinental railroad which we knew would lead us back to civilization. In Utah we hit a prairie dog hole in the road with such force that a tie bolt came out of the tie rod connecting the front wheels.\" 27 Automobilists banded together to form associations in major cities, some of which joined forces in 1902 to form www.cqresearcher.com 1 \"How does a self-driving car work?\" The Economist, April 29, 2013, http://tinyurl.com/cu95hqs. 2 Erico Guizzo, \"How Google's self-driving car works,\" IEEE Spectrum, Oct. 18, 2011, http://tinyurl.com/3l4bvnz. 3 Alex Davies, \"Avoiding squirrels and other things that Google's robot car can't do,\" Wired, May 27, 2014, http://tinyurl.com/qcso8kk. the American Automobile Association (AAA). These associations lobbied for pro-automobile legislation and for appropriations to build and improve highways. The federal government stepped in after World War I with the Federal Highway Act of 1921, which provided federal matching funds to states to create a national highway system. As the number of registered drivers nearly tripled during the 1920s to 23 million, the landscape and the economy were transformed. Gas stations and motels sprang up alongside new highways. Roadside diners began offering quickly prepared food, such as hamburgers, french fries and milk shakes, so drivers in a hurry could get on their way. Demand for steel, vulcanized rubber and oil skyrocket- ed. Road construction created tens of thousands of jobs. The American love affair with the car endured the Depression and World War II, then reached new heights after President Dwight D. Eisenhower signed the Federal-Aid Highway Act of 1956, authorizing construction of the interstate highway system. But even as Americans enjoyed the freedom offered by cars, they confronted an increasingly apparent downside. As car ownership rose, with many families owning two vehicles, traffic congestion worsened. To provide easy access to urban areas, highways were built through cities, often dividing neighborhoods and destroying historic districts. By the mid-1960s, the annual death toll from auto accidents July 25, 2014 637 FUTURE OF CARS When Cars Are Smarter, Roads Can Be Smarter, Too \"Everything's changed but our highways\" world with smart cars may not need traditional traffic signals, streetlights or other fixtures of today's road system. Experts say, for instance, that if cars can communicate, red lights won't need to stay red when no traffic is coming. One model, developed by researchers at the University of Texas, foresees vehicles approaching an intersection and making \"reservations\" with a virtual traffic coordinator that will rapidly assign them time slots so they can proceed through the intersection without coming to a full stop or possibly even slowing down very much. \"They can almost go through it at full speed,\" says University of Texas computer science professor Peter Stone, who is studying how such a system could be implemented safely. \"The vehicles have to slow down a little bit so they can be finely interweaved, but they accelerate and decelerate much less.\" The phasing out of traffic lights, while still many years away, is just one potential change to highways and intersections. Designing lanes that can provide charges to passing electric vehicles is one of the most active areas of research among engineers and visionaries around the world. Last year, the city of Gumi, South Korea, turned on a system that powers electric buses on a 15-mile urban route. The charge comes from subsurface electrical cables that create magnetic fields. A receiving device installed on the underbody of the bus converts these magnetic fields into electricity. 1 In Germany, the electrical engineering company Siemens is taking a different approach: outfitting stretches of the autobahn with overhead electric cables. This would enable hybrid trucks with diesel-electric engines to use these designated lanes for long- A began to exceed 50,000. Mounting concerns about air pollution spurred the 1970 Clean Air Act, which regulated emissions from motor vehicles as well as other sources. The 1973 oil embargo led to limited supplies of gasoline and seemingly endless lines at the pump. The Big Three automakers began facing increasing competition as consumers bought foreign cars especially reliable and energy-efficient models from Japan. 28 Improved Technology n the early years of automobiles, manufacturers had rolled out a series of important innovations: the elec- I 638 CQ Researcher distance, zero-carbon transport. Operating somewhat like San Francisco street cars, the trucks would automatically switch to electric mode when they physically attach to the overhead cables. 2 A more audacious vision for charging electric vehicles comes from an Idaho startup company, Solar Roadways. It wants to resurface U.S. roads with solar panels, which theoretically could generate more than triple the electricity the nation uses while providing other benefits such as warming wintertime roads to prevent ice buildup. Although the cost may ultimately be prohibitive, Solar Roadways has received two rounds of funding from the Federal Highway Administration and has built a prototype parking lot made of solar panels, microprocessors and LED lights energy-efficient light-emitting diodes encased in textured glass that it says can support a 250,000-pound truck. 3 But charging electric vehicles is just one part of the picture. Daan Roosegaarde, a Dutch artist who specializes in interactive works, has emerged as an unlikely visionary for rethinking pavement design. Roosegaarde has teamed up with Heijmans, a traditional infrastructure developer in Holland, to create glow-in-the-dark roads that use specially formulated, luminescent green markings. The goal is to eliminate the need for street lights and save electricity in busier areas, while illuminating more remote stretches of roads that previously did not have lights. The team also is studying the feasibility of affixing symbols to road surfaces that can alert drivers or specially equipped cars under certain conditions. One approach is to design giant snowflakes on roads with a type of paint that appears when temperatures drop below freezing and roads become slick. tric starter, four-wheel hydraulic brakes, windshield wipers, automatic transmission, power steering, front-wheel drive, independent suspension and more. But by the 1930s and '40s, as cars began taking modern form and the number of manufacturers dwindled, companies focused on cosmetic changes and increasingly powerful engines. Major advances, such as the emergence of modern electric and hybrid engines at the beginning of the 21st century, were few. But automotive engineers never stopped thinking about radical changes. One of the most visionary notions, often dismissed as science fiction, was that cars could one day drive themselves. The concept dates back at least as far as 1925, when American inventor Fran- cis P. Houdina demonstrated a radiocontrolled, driverless car in New York City that navigated traffic on Broadway and Fifth Avenue. The vehicle, equipped with a special antenna, was operated by a second car that followed closely and sent out radio impulses, controlling small electric motors that directed every movement. At the 1939 New York World's Fair, General Motors sponsored an exhibit depicting electric cars powered by circuits embedded in the road and controlled by radio. After World War II, interest in autonomous cars increased, with a focus on using specialized devices in roads to guide the vehicles. Nebraska worked with General Motors and RCA Labs in the 1950s to demonstrate a self-driving car that was guided on a strip of highway outside Lincoln by a series of experimental detector circuits in the pavement. Further testing in the 1960s and '70s demonstrated that cars could be controlled with buried magnetic cables. But as radar, lidar and other technologies advanced during the second half of the 20th century, attention turned to equipping vehicles so they could drive themselves without special roadway devices. Mercedes-Benz in the 1980s developed a self-driving van that navigated quiet city streets at speeds up to 39 mph, while a consortium of U.S. research institutes developed an autonomous land vehicle. In 1991, Congress passed legislation instructing the U.S. Department of www.cqresearcher.com AFP/Getty Images/Remko de Waal Roosegaarde said he is motivated by a concern that the pace of technological innovation has left roads behind. \"Everything's changed but our highways,\" he said. \"I wondered why we're sinking millions into these obsolete and ugly monstrosities instead of creating something new and better.\" 4 It remains to be seen, however, whether any of these approaches wins widespread adoption. The technological challenges aside, upgrading thousands of miles of roads may prove prohibitively expensive. In the United States, for instance, policy makers are scrambling to find money just to maintain the current system of roads and bridges. (See \"Current Situation,\" p. 643.) \"These kinds of ideas always sound great,\" said Ferdinand Duddenhffer, a German mobility expert at the University of Duisburg-Essen. \"But the question is how much do they cost, and the answer is usually quite vague.\" 5 Stone and his Texas team have won considerable attention for their work on intersections, partly because it could point the way to more efficient, safer traffic flow. Intersections are inherently dangerous places because cars cross them from different directions and most accidents that occur there could be eliminated by so-called smart intersections, he says. Now Stone is studying dynamic lane changes. In a future of self-driving cars that communicate with each other, why have four-lane highways on which two lanes always move one way? Depending on traffic flows, it may be more efficient to have three lanes of vehicles traffic in one direction and one lane in Special luminescent paint lights up a highway near Oss, The Netherlands. Glow-in-the-dark roads could eliminate the need for street lights while illuminating remote, unlighted roads. the other with the potential to switch at any time, depending on traffic patterns. \"With autonomous cars,\" Stone says, \"you could potentially have a system for changing the direction of traffic in a lane on a minute-by-minute basis.\" David Hosansky 1 Bill Chappell, \"The Road that Gives Electric Vehicles a Charge,\" NPR (blog), Aug. 7, 2013, http://tinyurl.com/mxsbslq. 2 Paul Hockenos, \"Street Smarts: From Holland, Bright Ideas for Highways,\" The New York Times, April 26, 2013, http://tinyurl.com/kmnfyqp. 3 Adrianne Jeffries, \"Crazy plan to cover the nation's roads with solar panels raises $1 million,\" The Verge, May 26, 2014, http://tinyurl.com/m3h78w9. 4 Hockenos, op. cit. 5 Ibid. Transportation to demonstrate an automated vehicle and highway system. The subsequent research and engineering work culminated in a 1997 demonstration on Interstate 15 in San Diego in which about 20 automated vehicles, including cars, buses and trucks, engaged in platooning and other maneuvers, attracting considerable media coverage. A subsequent initiative by the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) fostered another round of research. In a 2005 DARPA \"grand challenge\" competition, five autonomous vehicles successfully navigated a 132mile course in southern Nevada. Two years later, six teams navigated a staged city environment in a DARPA urban challenge competition. \"That first competition created a community of innovators, engineers, students, programmers, off-road racers, backyard mechanics, inventors and dreamers who came together to make history by trying to solve a tough technical problem,\" said Lt. Col. Scott Wadle, DARPA liaison to the U.S. Marine Corps. \"The fresh thinking they brought was the spark that has triggered major advances in the development of autonomous robotic ground vehicle technology in the years since.\" 29 As car manufacturers neared commercialization of semi-automated technologies such as front-end collision avoidance systems, Google quietly developed fully automated vehicles. In a 2010 blog post, the company disclosed July 25, 2014 639 FUTURE OF CARS ifornia, Michigan and Washington, D.C., followed. The U.S. Department of Transportation in 2013 issued policy guidance on self-driving vehicles, including recommendations for states related to testing, licensing and regulation. \"Whether we're talking about automated features in cars today or fully automated vehicles of the future, our top priority is to ensure these vehicles and their occupants are safe,\" said then-Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood. 32 AFP/Getty Images/Jewel Samad that its self-driving cars had by then traveled more than 140,000 miles, always with a person behind the wheel who could take control if necessary. The cars used video cameras, radar and lidar to detect other vehicles, as well as detailed maps to enable them to navigate. \"While this project is very much in the experimental stage, it provides a glimpse of what transportation might look like in the future thanks to advanced computer science,\" the President Obama rides in a high-tech smart car simulator at the Turner-Fairbank Highway Research Center in McLean, Va., on July 15, 2014, before speaking on the economy. Congress is deadlocked over how to pump more money into the federal Highway Trust Fund, which helps pay for bridge and road maintenance. The Congressional Budget Office is warning that highway funds will dwindle to $2 billion by Sept. 30, requiring the Transportation Department to begin delaying payments to states to keep the balance above zero, as required by law. post stated. 30 Since then, Google's cars have been involved in two accidents, although the company says the technology was not at fault. One accident occurred while a human was operating the car, and the other when an automated car that was stopped at a red light was rear-ended by a conventional car. 31 The reality that autonomous cars could enter the market within a few years jolted policy makers into action. Nevada in 2011 became the first state to pass legislation to regulate and license autonomous vehicles. Florida, Cal- 640 CQ Researcher CURRENT SITUATION Regulatory Action tate and federal policy makers are just beginning to come to grips with what new auto technology may mean. \"Michigan is the home of automotive technology, so we're trying to stay S ahead of the curve,\" says Kowall, the Michigan state senator, who sponsored the regulatory legislation his state adopted in December. \"As of last count, we have more than 300 companies in Michigan currently working on some type of autonomous or connected vehicle technology. We're just making sure that there are no encumbrances on companies that want to do this testing.\" About a dozen more states are looking into the issue, prodded by companies that want legal clarity when putting a self-driving car on the road. Automated cars generally are neither explicitly permitted nor banned because legislators have not had to confront the issue. (See graphic, p. 628.) \"States have assumed in all the laws they have written that there is a driver in the car,\" says Anne Teigen, a transportation expert with the National Conference of State Legislatures. Now that such an assumption is becoming outdated, policy makers face questions including: Should operators of automated cars get special training, ensuring that they understand the technology and can take over controls when necessary? If an automated vehicle is involved in an accident, where does liability fall? On the own