The following table shows the result of the 2012 presidential election along with the vote predicted by

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The following table shows the result of the 2012 presidential election along with the vote predicted by several organizations in the days before the election. The sample sizes were typically about 1000 to 2000 people. The percentages for each poll do not sum to 100 because of voters who indicated they were undecided or preferred another candidate.

Predicted Vote
Poll                            Obama                          Romney
Rasmussen................. 48.................................... 49
CNN............................. 49.................................... 49
Gallup.......................... 48.................................... 49
Pew Research............. 50.................................... 47
Rand............................ 54.................................... 43
Fox............................... 46.................................... 46
Actual Vote............... 50.6................................. 47.8

a. Treating the sample sizes as 1000 each, find the approximate margin of error.
b. Do most of the predictions fall within the margin of error of the actual vote percentages? Considering the relative sizes of the sample, the population, and the undecided factor, would you say that these polls had good accuracy?

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Statistics The Art And Science Of Learning From Data

ISBN: 9780321997838

4th Edition

Authors: Alan Agresti, Christine A. Franklin, Bernhard Klingenberg

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