Susan Cooper currently works as an assistant manager at Joe’s

Susan Cooper currently works as an assistant manager at Joe’s Coffee and Tea, a national chain of over 200 coffee shops. Susan has worked at Joe’s for 4 years. Feeling that her career was stalling, she enrolled part time ago at a local beauty college to earn abeautician license. She was planning to leave Joe ’ s to attend college full time, but the recession hit, and her husband, Denzel, found his job as a personal banker to be in jeopardy. If Denzelloses his job while she is attending school full time, they are concerned that their \$10,000 in savings will run out. Without recourse to any other funds, running out of money could result in dire consequences, including eviction from their rented apartment.

Susan and Denzel’s expenses amount to \$5,000/month, of which\$2,000 is rent. Susan contributes \$2,000 to their monthly expenses, while Denzel contributes \$3,000. Denzel believes there is a 40%chance of losing his position. If that happens, unemployment would provide \$2,000 for 6 months. Denzel plans to become a mortgage broker if he loses his job, and has every reason to believe that he will earn at least \$3,000 per month after 6 months.

If either Susan or Denzel is not earning income they can apply for housing assistance, which is \$1,000/month for 6 months. If Susan quits and Denzel is laid off, they assess an 80% chance of obtaining the assistance. If however, only Susan is without an income, then they believe there is a 50-50 chance of assistance. If Susan does not quit, but Denzel is laid off, the probability of obtaining assistance increases a bit to 60%.

If Susan stays at Joe’s, it will take her 18 months to finish school. If, however, she attends school full time, then she will finish in 3 months. She believes that it will take her another 3 months to build up her clientele to match her \$2,000/month contribution.

Structure Susan and Denzel’s decision as an influence diagram using PrecisionTree. Structure it using a decision tree using PrecisionTree. What would you recommend they do? Why?

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