The Oceanside Hotel is adjacent to City Coliseum, a 24,000-seat arena that is home to the city’s professional basketball and ice hockey teams and that hosts a variety of concerts, trade shows, and conventions throughout the year. The hotel has experienced the following occupancy rates for the nine years since the coliseum opened:
Year Occupancy Rate
1 ..........75%
2 ...........70
3 ...........72
4 ...........77
5 ...........83
6 ...........81
7 ...........86
8 ...........91
9 ...........87
Compute an exponential smoothing forecast with α = 0.20, an adjusted exponential smoothing forecast with α = 0.20 and β = 0.20, and a linear trend line forecast. Compare the three forecasts using MAD and average error (Eˉ), and indicate which forecast seems to be most accurate.