You have won two tickets to a Lady Gaga concert in Atlantic City. The concert is three days from now and you have to make travel arrangements. Calculate the reliability of each of the following options:
a. Take the bus from campus to Washington, DC, and from DC to Atlantic City. The bus from campus to DC has a reliability of 90%, and from DC to Atlantic City has a reliability of 93%.
b. Fly directly from the local airport to Atlantic City. The chance that the flight will leave on time and thus arrive in time for the concert is 90%, but there is also a 50% chance that you will be able to beg or borrow enough money to pay for the flight.
c. Drive to Atlantic City Your car has a 70% chance of making the entire trip without breaking down. Although not recommended, if your car breaks down, you could hitchhike with a 40% chance of getting to Atlantic City unscathed and in time for the concert.
d. Drive to Washington, DC, and take the bus to Atlantic City from there. Your car has a 79% chance of making it to DC. If it doesn’t make it to DC, you can hitchhike there with a 40% chance of success.