Question

(1) What is a Black Swan event?
(2) Does it ever make sense a priori to devote resources to preventing a black swan event? Explain
(3) Does it ever make sense a priori to devote resources to containing a black swan event should one occur? Explain
(4) Is human error different than a Black Swan event? Can human error lead to a Black Swan event?
(5) If you were BP’s executive and you were looking at the cost of a blowout, loss of 87% market value, possible bankruptcy, etc., and determining whether to spend several million dollars providing redundancies – relief wells drilled at same time as main well – how would you decide whether to spend the money or not?



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  • CreatedSeptember 27, 2014
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