Question: An athletic league does drug testing of its athletes 10

An athletic league does drug testing of its athletes, 10 percent of whom use drugs. This test, however, is only 95 percent reliable. That is, a drug user will test positive with probability 0.95 and negative with probability 0.05, and a nonuser will test negative with probability 0.95 and positive with probability 0.05.
Develop a probability tree diagram to determine the posterior probability of each of the following outcomes of testing an athlete.
(a) The athlete is a drug user, given that the test is positive.
(b) The athlete is not a drug user, given that the test is positive.
(c) The athlete is a drug user, given that the test is negative.
(d) The athlete is not a drug user, given that the test is negative.
(e) Use the Excel template for posterior probabilities to check your answers in the preceding parts.

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  • CreatedSeptember 22, 2015
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