General Motors (GM) is one of the world?s largest car and truck manufacturers and employs more than 200,000 employees worldwide. In 1970 GM had captured nearly 60% of the U.S. market share. However, due to increased global competition over the past 40 years, GM?s market share has eroded to less than 18% in 2012. The following data show GM?s U.S. market share from 2007 to 2016. These data can also be found in the Excel file GM market share.xlsx.

a. Forecast the U.S. market share for GM in 2017 using two-period weighted moving average with weights 3 and 1.

b. Calculate the MAD for the forecast in part a.

c. Forecast the U.S. market share for GM in 2017 using exponential smoothing with ? = 0.7.

d. Calculate the MAD for the forecast in part c.

e. Which forecast do you have most confidence in? Why?

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Market Market Year Share (%) Year Share (%) 2007 23.2 2012 17.6 2008 21.9 2013 17.5 2009 19.6 2014 17.4 2010 18.8 2015 17.3 2016 2011 19.2 17.0