You are managing a portfolio that tracks the S&P 500 index. You consider two ways in which

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You are managing a portfolio that tracks the S&P 500 index. You consider two ways in which you might calculate the VaR: 

(a) Using the delta-normal approach by calibrating the mean and variance of the portfolio to the historical data. 

(b) Using historical simulation based on the same data.

Which one would you expect to provide a riskier picture of the portfolio?  

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