Suppose that (Y_{t}) follows the (operatorname{AR}(p)) model (Y_{t}=beta_{0}+beta_{1} Y_{t-1}+cdots+beta_{p} Y_{t-p}+) (u_{t}), where (Eleft(u_{t} mid Y_{t-1}, Y_{t-2}, ldots

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Suppose that \(Y_{t}\) follows the \(\operatorname{AR}(p)\) model \(Y_{t}=\beta_{0}+\beta_{1} Y_{t-1}+\cdots+\beta_{p} Y_{t-p}+\) \(u_{t}\), where \(E\left(u_{t} \mid Y_{t-1}, Y_{t-2}, \ldots\right)=0\). Let \(Y_{t+h \mid t}=E\left(Y_{t+h} \mid Y_{t}, Y_{t-1}, \ldots\right)\). Show that \(Y_{t+h \mid t}=\beta_{0}+\beta_{1} Y_{t-1+h \mid t}+\cdots+\beta_{p} Y_{t-p+h \mid t}\) for \(h>p\).

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Introduction To Econometrics

ISBN: 9780134461991

4th Edition

Authors: James Stock, Mark Watson

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