You have a model that classifies Federal Reserve statements as either bullish or bearish. When the Fed
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You have a model that classifies Federal Reserve statements as either bullish or bearish.
When the Fed makes a bullish announcement, you expect the market to be up 75%
of the time. The market is just as likely to be up as it is to be down or flat, but the Fed makes bullish announcements 60% of the time. What is the probability that the Fed made a bearish announcement, given that the market was up?
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Related Book For
Quantitative Financial Risk Management
ISBN: 9781119522201,9781119522263
1st Edition
Authors: Michael B. Miller
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