The plot shows several spikes in the DJIA volatility index, usually in periods when the Wilshire 5000

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The plot shows several spikes in the DJIA volatility index, usually in periods when the Wilshire 5000 index is falling. For example, the volatility index peaked at nearly 60% in the crisis of 2007-2009. In contrast, the volatility index is usually low when the stock market index is rising (see the period between 2003 and 2007). The causal relationship between expectations and market price swings can vary over time: falling stock prices encourage investors to revise upward their expectations of near-term market risks, but rising expectations of market risk also depress stock market prices. More information would be needed to distinguish these alternatives. is to examine how investors expect risk to evolve in the near future. The DJIA volatility index (FRED code: VXDCLS) is one such measure. Plot the level of this volatility index at a monthly frequency since October 1997 and as a second line, the percent change from a year ago of the Wilshire 5000 index (FRED code: WILL5000PR). Compare their patterns.

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Money Banking and Financial Markets

ISBN: 978-1259746741

5th edition

Authors: Stephen Cecchetti, Kermit Schoenholtz

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