Southwestern University (SWU), a large state college in Stephenville, Texas, enrolls close to 20,000 students. The school is a dominant force in the small city, with more students during fall and spring than permanent residents. Always a football powerhouse, SWU is usually in the top 20 in college football rankings. Since the legendary Phil Flamm was hired as its head coach in 2015 (in hopes of reaching the elusive number-one ranking), attendance at the five Saturday home games each year increased. Prior to Flamm’s arrival, attendance generally averaged 25,000 to 29,000 per game. Season ticket sales bumped up by 10,000 just with the announcement of the new coach’s arrival. Stephenville and SWU were ready to move to the big time! The immediate issue facing SWU, however, was not NCAA ranking. It was capacity. The existing SWU stadium, built in 1953, has seating for 54,000 fans. The table indicates attendance at each game for the past 6 years. One of Flamm’s demands upon joining SWU had been a stadium expansion, or possibly even a new stadium. With attendance increasing, SWU administrators began to face the issue head-on. Flamm had wanted dormitories solely for his athletes in the stadium as an additional feature of any expansion.

^a Homecoming games.^b During the fourth week of each season, Stephenville hosted a hugely popular southwestern crafts festival. This event brought tens of thousands of tourists to the town, especially on weekends, and had an obvious negative impact on game attendance. SWU’s president, Dr. Joel Wisner, decided it was time for his vice president of development to forecast when the existing stadium would “max out.” The expansion was, in his mind, a given. But Wisner needed to know how long he could wait. He also sought a revenue projection, assuming an average ticket price of $50 in 2022 and a 5% increase each year in future prices.

Discussion Questions1. Develop a forecasting model, justifying its selection over other techniques, and project attendance through 2023.2. What revenues are to be expected in 2022 and 2023?3. Discuss the school’s options.

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Southwestern University Football Game Attendance, 2016-2021 GAME 1 2² 3 4b 5 GAME 1 2ª 3 4b 5 2016 ATTENDEES OPPONENT 34,200 39,800 38,200 26,900 35,100 Rice Texas Duke Arkansas TCU 2019 ATTENDEES OPPONENT 41,900 Arkansas 46,100 Missouri 43,900 Florida 30,100 40,500 LSU Central Florida 2017 ATTENDEES OPPONENT 36,100 40,200 39,100 25,300 36,200 Miami Nebraska Ohio State Nevada Boise State 2020 ATTENDEES 42,500 48,200 44,200 33,900 47,800 OPPONENT Indiana North Texas Texas A&M Southern Oklahoma 2018 ATTENDEES OPPONENT 35,900 46,500 43,100 27,900 39,200 USC Texas Tech Alaska Arizona Baylor 2021 ATTENDEES OPPONENT 46,900 50,100 45,900 36,300 49,900 LSU Texas South Florida Montana Arizona State