2.40 A construction project is about 2 months away from the scheduled completion date. Based on...

 

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2.40 A construction project is about 2 months away from the scheduled completion date. Based on the progress of the project to date, the contractor estimated that the project can be completed on schedule without difficulty if good weather continues for the next 2 months; whereas if the weather in the next 2 months is normal, the probability of on-time completion will be 90%. This probability will be reduced to 20% if bad weather prevails, in which case he has the option of launching a crash program to improve the on-time completion probability to 80%. However, because of uncertainty in the labor market, there is only a 50- 50 chance that he can successfully launch a crash program when needed. Assume that no crash program is necessary if the weather condition is good or normal. Suppose also that the weather bu- reau predicts that the relative likelihoods of good, normal, and bad weather conditions in the next 2 months are 1:2:2. (a) What is the probability that the construction project will be completed on schedule? (b) If the project was not completed on schedule, what is the probability that the weather condition had been normal? 2.40 A construction project is about 2 months away from the scheduled completion date. Based on the progress of the project to date, the contractor estimated that the project can be completed on schedule without difficulty if good weather continues for the next 2 months; whereas if the weather in the next 2 months is normal, the probability of on-time completion will be 90%. This probability will be reduced to 20% if bad weather prevails, in which case he has the option of launching a crash program to improve the on-time completion probability to 80%. However, because of uncertainty in the labor market, there is only a 50- 50 chance that he can successfully launch a crash program when needed. Assume that no crash program is necessary if the weather condition is good or normal. Suppose also that the weather bu- reau predicts that the relative likelihoods of good, normal, and bad weather conditions in the next 2 months are 1:2:2. (a) What is the probability that the construction project will be completed on schedule? (b) If the project was not completed on schedule, what is the probability that the weather condition had been normal?

Answer rating: 100% (QA)

G good weather N normal weather B Bad weather c crach program ... View the full answer