4. Management's prior probability assessment of the demand for a newly developed product follows: High demand...

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4. Management's prior probability assessment of the demand for a newly developed product follows: High demand 0.55 Average demand 0.25 Low demand 0.20 Reliability of the survey follows: high demand 80% when demand is actually high high demand 60% when demand is actually average high demand 15% when demand is actually low (1). Survey result shows high demand. What's the probability of each level of demand? (2). Suppose that Survey result shows high demand. Explain your strategy so that the probability is at least higher than 0.8 of level of demand is really high. Strategy needs to be related to (i) reliability of the survey issue and (ii) prior probability assessment issue, respectively. 4. Management's prior probability assessment of the demand for a newly developed product follows: High demand 0.55 Average demand 0.25 Low demand 0.20 Reliability of the survey follows: high demand 80% when demand is actually high high demand 60% when demand is actually average high demand 15% when demand is actually low (1). Survey result shows high demand. What's the probability of each level of demand? (2). Suppose that Survey result shows high demand. Explain your strategy so that the probability is at least higher than 0.8 of level of demand is really high. Strategy needs to be related to (i) reliability of the survey issue and (ii) prior probability assessment issue, respectively.

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Question 1 Probability of actual high demands PAHD055 Probability of actual average demands PAAD025 ... View the full answer