About 40% of new businesses fail within two years of starting. Of those that remain viable...

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About 40% of new businesses fail within two years of starting. Of those that remain viable after this point, 80% make modest returns (~10%) and 20% make extraordinary returns (~1,000%). Come up with an expression and measure of the expected long-term return for a new business under this framework. About 40% of new businesses fail within two years of starting. Of those that remain viable after this point, 80% make modest returns (~10%) and 20% make extraordinary returns (~1,000%). Come up with an expression and measure of the expected long-term return for a new business under this framework.