In preparation for the fourteenth session of the UN Commission on Sustainable Development (CSD 14), the conference
Question:
In preparation for the fourteenth session of the UN Commission on Sustainable Development (CSD 14), the conference secretariat will be addressing four main themes: industrial development; energy; atmosphere and air pollution; and climate change. The fourth of these, climate change, is particularly critical given the enormity of the imminent impacts of climate change on Africa's economies, communities and ecosystems. This special session of the CSD comes one year after the coming into force of the Kyoto Protocol, a key instrument in combating global climate change. Currently, Parties are grappling with the identification of appropriate strategies towards implementing this Protocol. The CSD 14, scheduled for early May 2006, will among other things assess the progress achieved so far towards attaining the goals of Agenda 21 and the Johannesburg Plan of Implementation that relate to climate change. The economies of African countries largely depend on sectors such as forestry, agriculture, fisheries and tourism that are particularly vulnerable to environmental changes. Anthropogenic practices, and in particular energy production and consumption, have been identified as the main sources of greenhouse gas emissions causing climate change, although increasingly, there are reports which point to the emerging importance of dust as a key factor in the region's climate variability and change. Climate change is expected to result in increase in droughts, floods and other extreme weather events adding to stress on water resources, food security, health, infrastructure and thus overall development. Most African communities are vulnerable to these impacts mainly because of; inter alia, the high poverty levels, reliance on rain-fed agriculture, lack of access to technology and cultural practices. This report aims to inform the CSD 14 on the status of climate change in Africa. Specifically, Section 2 discusses climate change in the context of sustainable development, Section 3 reviews strategies that have been used to combat climate change in the region in the recent past, while Section 4 analyses the region's vulnerability to climate change impacts. The paper concludes by identifying issues and questions to be considered for integration into future climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies of African countries.
Climate Change and Sustainable Development
Development paths and production and consumption patterns and their impacts on the climate system The Assessment of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change (AIACC)1 study shows that climate is changing and has altered the micro-climates of the highland areas of East Africa. Analysis of time-series data from 1978 to 1999 reveals that the maximum and minimum temperatures have changed, with significant increases generally recorded at all sites. Analyses of data over the period 1961 to 2001 also reveal decreasing trends in rainfall. The temperature changes have been more pronounced at the higher altitudes than in the lowlands.2 The temperature in the Kabale district of Uganda has also shot up by 2C (3.6F) in the last three decades.3 Development paths that are high carbon intensive contribute to global warming. Overall Africa's energy per capita consumption remains low and hence contribution to global climate change minimal. However localized impacts are evident especially where extraction of wood for fuel is high and surpasses reforestation rates. Africa suffers modern energy poverty, a hindrance to sustainable development. It is expected that current energy consumptions patterns will prevail though the share of renewable energy will gradually increase. Climate change impacts on sustainable development (including impacts on agriculture, water resources, public health, natural disasters, etc.);
Agriculture
Agriculture is the backbone of most African economies accounting for as much as 40%of the total export earnings and employing 60-90% of the total labour force in SSA. Over 50% of household food needs and an equivalent share of income emanate from agriculture. The bulk of agricultural systems is climate dependent, with for example most of sub-Sahara relying primarily on rain-fed agriculture. Climate change hence intensifies food insecurity as productivity decreases and prices go up in countries already suffering these insecurities.
The number of countries facing the threat is quite high. Hunger victims have been on the increase mainly as a result of extreme weather events. The current situation in Niger is not isolated. The ability to diversify is limited by a variety of factors including the global trade system. Projected loses in cereal production potential in SSA will be about 33% by 2060. Fish production will be negatively affected by sea level rise and coral bleaching. Some countries have significant agricultural products from coastal zones which are threatened by sea level rise and increasing temperatures. These include Kenya (mangoes, cashew nuts, and coconuts); Benin (coconuts and palm oil); Guinea (rice) and Nigeria where coastal agricultural land accounts for about 75% of total. Though the research is inconclusive it is expected that off shore oil production will be negatively impacted by rise in sea level.
Water resources
Africa's water resources have been decreasing over time mainly as a result of persistent droughts and land use patterns. Climate change will exemplify this situation. By 2050 the area experiencing water shortages in SSA will have increased by 29%, while river flow in the Nile region will decrease by 75% by 2100 with damaging consequences on irrigation practices. Decreasing water levels is expected to affect water quality and exacerbate water borne diseases, and reduce available hydro-power. The rainfall patterns are predicted to change. Under a fast global warming scenario, large areas of Africa would experience changes in December-February or June-August rainfall that significantly exceed natural variability, with significant consequences on agricultural systems and food security.
HEALTH
Health Changes in rainfall and temperature associated with climate change are expected to increase the occurrence and geographic range of vector-borne diseases such as malaria, and rift valley fever. Cholera and meningitis will also be exemplified. The health issue is demonstrated by the El Nino effects. The 1997/98 El Nino in East Africa was accompanied by rising malaria, fever and cholera incidences. Predictions show that high altitude areas such as Nairobi may face new risks if the range in which mosquito can breed increases. Meningitis may spread beyond the drier West and Central African parts to the eastern African region. Africa already accounts for 85% of the deaths and diseases associated with malaria. Maternal mortality emanating from malariaassociated anemia is also likely to rise. With the co consequent decrease in water quality, disease levels are likely to rise. Areas with already poor sanitary conditions will become particularly vulnerable to disease as water scarcity intensifies.
Human settlement
Sea level rise due to climate change will shift coastal boundaries backwards forcing people to migrate and destroying infrastructure, fauna and flora. The West coast of Africa is one of the most vulnerable areas. By 2015 Lagos, Kinshasa and Cairo, all of which are located along the coastline, are expected to host about 8 million people, who will hence be exposed to sea level rise. The threat of cyclones will rise with sea surface temperature rise.
Combating Climate Change.
Reductions of GHG Emissions. The Kyoto Protocol is a legally binding international agreement to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions causing climate change, which was initially negotiated in Kyoto, Japan in 1997. The protocol entered into force on February 16th, 2005 after at least 55 Parties to the UN Framework for Climate Change Convention, incorporating Annex I Parties which accounted in total for at least 55 % of the total carbon dioxide emissions for 1990 from that group, deposited their instruments of ratification, acceptance, approval or accession. Thirty-seven African countries have achieved this status. The agreement commits Annex I (industrialized) countries to reduce emissions of six greenhouse gases (excluding 03 and water vapor) by 5% between 2008-2012.
The Kyoto Protocol has three innovative "flexibility mechanisms" to lower the overall costs of achieving its emissions targets; Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), Joint Implementation (JI) and Emissions Trading (ET). Though non-Kyoto initiatives are increasing with the latest being the pact with India along with Australia, the US, China and South Korea are getting together to develop technologies that would help curb greenhouse-gas emissions, Africa has not featured in these initiatives. Clearly such initiatives will have implications on the market of Kyoto Mechanisms. Cape Town is so far the only African city that has committed to reducing emissions under the Sustainable Cities Initiative through increasing share of renewables for electricity generation to 10% by 2010.
Various support programmes also exist and aim at providing technical and capacity building support for development of CDM project documents. The WB Special Effort for Africa Program has provided support in developing eight community development carbon fund projects in subSaharan Africa in Kenya, Ethiopia, Tanzania and Uganda, though none has been approved yet. Africa seems to have mainly benefited from capacity building on CDM offered through the support programmes rather than from actual project investments (as evident from Figure 1). Uganda (with 1.3 million tCO2e for a total 6.6 MW hydro power plant projects) and South Africa (with 3.8 million tCO2e committed under the WB carbon fund for the 10 MW landfill gas fired electricity generation project) are the only countries where large carbon transactions have been completed, while transactions are underway in Ghana, Nigeria, Zambia and elsewhere. Though four projects from Africa (Tanzania, Niger, Madagascar and Uganda) are listed as potential candidates under the WB Biocarbon fund, there is no guarantee that any of these will be approved.
Africa's Vulnerability to Climate Change
Vulnerability to climate change is considered high in Africa due to many factors. These include, inter alia, heavy reliance on rain-fed agriculture, frequent droughts and floods, and poverty in many countries while adaptive capacity is low due to lack of economic resources and technology. HIV/Aids pandemic and poor governance in many parts of the continent brings in additional challenge to many households and communities. Increased frequency and intensity of droughts and floods expected with climate change could worsen the food insecurity situation already prevailing in many parts of Africa. Regions like subSaharan Africa where rain-fed agriculture accounts for over 90% of food production could be adversely affected by climate change. Climate change could contribute to desertification through changing prevailing climatic conditions. Current predictions of future climate show that some 10 areas will become unsuitable for growing certain types of crops. Sea-level rise would likely affect the tourism industry through beach loss, inundation, ecosystem degradation, saline water intrusion and infrastructure damage. Tourism is a major foreign exchange earner and employs a significant number of people in many African/developing countries.
Policy processing
Integrating climate change mitigation and adaptation into policy processes and decision making across a range of sectors and scales is a critical next step in managing climate change and its impacts.24 Efforts to achieve this objective might be undertaken under the direction of the UNFCCC or independently through actions supported by governments. Economic and social development at all levels needs to be undertaken with an eye to ensuring that it is "climate proof" and "climate friendly" Doing so will require mobilization of human capacity and knowledge, institutions and governance, tools and technologies, and appropriate financial resources.
Recommended questions;
As the international community moves forward in its efforts to take an integrated approach to addressing the challenges that climate change presents, consideration will need to be given to addressing the following questions:
a.) How may African Parties to the UNFCCC support an integrated approach to adaptation to climate change?
b.) In what new ways can the Parties reach out to and engage with other communities such as the private sector, financial sector and NGOs?
c.) How may the knowledge generated so far by African think-tanks and knowledge networks among institutions?
d.) How could African Parties position themselves to harness from the Marrakech Funds LDCF, SCCF (both under the UNFCCC) and the AF (under the Kyoto Protocol)?
Accounting Principles Part 2
ISBN: 978-1118306796
6th Canadian edition Volume 1
Authors: Jerry J. Weygandt, Donald E. Kieso, Paul D. Kimmel, Barbara Trenholm, Valerie Kinnear, Joan E. Barlow