Suppose a test for diagnosing a certain serious disease is successful in detecting the disease in 95% of all persons infected, but that it incorrectly diagnoses 4% of all healthy people as having the serious disease. Suppose also that it incorrectly diagnoses 12% of all people having another minor disease as having the serious disease. If it is known that 2% of the population has the serious, 90% of the population is health and 8% has the minor disease, find the probability that a person selected at random has the serious disease if the test indicates that he or she does. Use H to represent healthy, M to represent having minor disease and D to represent having serious disease. Show the tree diagram and contingency table.

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The tree that represents the health contrib... View the full answer