An electronics firm can initiate an important R&D program by making a $3 million investment at...

 

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An electronics firm can initiate an important R&D program by making a $3 million investment at the beginning of the year. a) There is a 20% chance that the program will be met with immediate success earning the firm a return of $10 million by the end of the year. b) If success does not come, the firm can invest another $3 million (in the seconds stage) and raise its success chance to 25%. c) If this second stage fails, the firm can invest again, and so on, up to a total of 5 investments. d) The investment cost for each stage is $3 million. e) The ultimate return from a successful completion of the program (sooner or later) is $10 million f) And the chance of success in investment for each stage is 20%, 25%, 33%, 50%, and 100%. [i] Draw this R&D program's Decision Tree. [ii] As the manager in charge of this R&D program, would you make the initial $3 million investment? If so, at what stage (if any) would you stop? [iii] Would your decision be any different if the cost of capital k is 0%, 5%, and 10% for each scenario? An electronics firm can initiate an important R&D program by making a $3 million investment at the beginning of the year. a) There is a 20% chance that the program will be met with immediate success earning the firm a return of $10 million by the end of the year. b) If success does not come, the firm can invest another $3 million (in the seconds stage) and raise its success chance to 25%. c) If this second stage fails, the firm can invest again, and so on, up to a total of 5 investments. d) The investment cost for each stage is $3 million. e) The ultimate return from a successful completion of the program (sooner or later) is $10 million f) And the chance of success in investment for each stage is 20%, 25%, 33%, 50%, and 100%. [i] Draw this R&D program's Decision Tree. [ii] As the manager in charge of this R&D program, would you make the initial $3 million investment? If so, at what stage (if any) would you stop? [iii] Would your decision be any different if the cost of capital k is 0%, 5%, and 10% for each scenario?