Use the Case-Shiller Data on any metropolitan area you would like. Utilize the Dickey-Fuller test and determine if the variable is stationary. If it is not, solve this problem and rerun the test. Determine which model either AR or ARMA model is the best and how many lags. Conduct a test for serial correlation. Forecast for the next 6 months. Utilize out-of-sample forecasting methods using a 50/50 sample split to determine if your model is superior to a random walk (a model of just the mean).

 

 

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The CaseShiller Home Price Index data for the San Francisco Bay Area will be used in this analysis 1 DickeyFuller Test The DickeyFuller test is a statistical test that determines whether a time series ... View the full answer