Consider the freshman applications data in Exercise 2.10 (Table 2.12).

Suppose the community college wants to try the following forecasting methods as well:

• 3-month moving average

• Averaging method

• Simple Linear Trend Determine the forecasts for the years 2016, 2017, and 2018. Based on MAD, compare the forecasts of all the methods, including the exponential smoothing method done in Exercise 2.10. Which method would you recommend and why?

Data From Exercise 2.10:

A community college is planning to use the exponential smoothing method to forecast freshman applications for the fall semester of each year. Past 5-year data on the actual number of applications received during 2011–2015 are given in Table 2.12.

Table 2.12:

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Data on Freshman Application (Exercise 2.10) Year 2011 Number of Applications 4650 2012 2013 5200 6000 2014 5700 2015 6200