Suppose you are seated next to a stranger on an airplane, and you start discussing various topics such as where you were born (country or state), what your favorite movie of all time is, your spouse’s occupation, and so on. For simplicity, assume that the probability that your details match for any given topic is 1/50 and is independent from one topic to the next. If you discuss 10 topics, how surprising would it be to find that you match on at least one of them? Support your answer with a numerical assessment.
Answer to relevant QuestionsWhy is it not surprising that the night before a major airplane crash several people will have dreams about an airplane disaster? If you were one of those people, would you think that some-thing amazing had occurred? Ask four friends to tell you their most amazing coincidence story. Use the material in this chapter to assess how surprising each of the stories is to you. Pick one of the stories, and try to approximate the probability of ...In explaining why it is a costly mistake to have the CPI overestimate inflation, the Associated Press (20 October 1994) reported, “ Every 1 percentage point increase in the CPI raises the federal budget deficit by an ...The CPI in July, 1977, was 60.9; in July, 1994, it was 148.4. a. The salary of the governor of California in July, 1977, was $ 49,100; in July 1994, it was $ 120,000. Compute what the July, 1977, salary would be in July, ...Suppose the population of IQ scores in the town or city where you live is bell-shaped, with a mean of 105 and a standard deviation of 15. Describe the frequency curve for possible sample means that would result from random ...
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