Question: The Consumer Confidence Index CCI attempts to measure people s feelings

The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) attempts to measure people’s feelings about general business conditions, employment opportunities, and their own income prospects. The file P02_20.xlsx contains the annual average values of the CCI.
a. Find the first six autocorrelations of this time series.
b. Use the results of part a to specify one or more promising auto regression models. Estimate each model with the available data. Which model provides the best fit to the data?
c. Use the best auto regression model from part b to produce a forecast of the CCI in the next year. Also, provide a measure of the likely forecast error.

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  • CreatedApril 01, 2015
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