Consider the proportion of Americans under the age of 18 living below the poverty level. The data are in the file P02_44.xlsx.
a. Find the first six autocorrelations of this time series.
b. Use the results of part a to specify one or more promising auto regression models. Estimate each model with the available data. Which model provides the best fit to the data?
c. Use the best auto regression model from part b to produce a forecast of the proportion of American children living below the poverty level in the next year. Also, provide a measure of the likely forecast error.