The United States Department of Agriculture's Child and Adult Care Food Program (CACPF) plays a vital role in improving the quality of day care and making it more affordable for many low-income families. Each day, 2.9 million children receive nutritious meals and snacks through CACFP. The program also provides meals and snacks to 86,000 adults who receive care in nonresidential adult day care centers. CACFP reaches even further to provide meals to children residing in emergency shelters, and snacks and suppers to youths participating in eligible afterschool care programs. x Many will know of the School Lunch Program that is a part of the CACFP.
We will use data from the Child Care Center program of CACFP. "Eligible public or private nonprofit child care centers, outside-school-hours care centers, Head Start programs, and other institutions which are licensed or approved to provide day care services may participate in CACFP, independently or as sponsored centers. For profit centers must receive Title XX funds for at least 25 percent of enrolled children or licensed capacity (whichever is less) or at least 25 percent of the children in care must be eligible for free and reduced price meals. Meals served to children are reimbursed at rates based upon a child's eligibility for free, reduced price, or paid meals."9
Monthly data from March 2004 through September 2007 is provided below. You are charged with making a 12-month forecast of the meals to be served. Begin by plotting the data and examining it for the patterns of trend and seasonality. Choose an appropriate model for the data and forecast for the next 12 months.

Transcribed Image Text:

562764 937 54317507 313684 12230771 t- 77437577 22535 2395 513650 6255 6 101 87 Muu 9411337854773 717962 2228 3998584168438 595 123 38735 2 753 9877899899 111878 a nr e oa