A British divorce case was heard in court. The husband was seeking a divorce from his wife based on his wife giving birth to a baby 50 weeks after the husband left for military service in WWII. The average gestation period is 40 weeks (average range: 37-42 weeks). The husband had no physical contact with his wife during these 50 weeks, and therefore adultery was suspected (adultery was a legal requirement divorce in Britain at the time - 1949). However, the British judge ruled that since a 349 day pregnancy was scientifically possible, although highly improbable, that the divorce would not be granted.

A) Consider the following clinical distribution of length of gestations; this data is included in Homework1A.xls. If you were an expert witness in this case, how would you testify to the probability of a natural 50 week gestation? Evaluate and comment on the reasoning for the judge's verdict. Use appropriate statistical methods to justify your conclusion.

B) Suppose it had been only 48 weeks? or 45 weeks? Where would you draw the line of believability?

Value Labels		Unweighted Frequency
Value 27	<=27 Weeks	48
Value 28	28 Weeks	15
Value 29	29 Weeks	21
Value 30	30 Weeks	28
Value 31	31 Weeks	36
Value 32	32 Weeks	38
Value 33	33 Weeks	62
Value 34	34 Weeks	98
Value 35	35 Weeks	160
Value 36	36 Weeks	313
Value 37	37 Weeks	544
Value 38	38 Weeks	1433
Value 39	39 Weeks	2771
Value 40	40 Weeks	3804
Value 41	41 Weeks	2914
Value 42	42 Weeks	1014
Value 43	43 Weeks	186
Value 44	44 Weeks	81
Value 45	45 Weeks	28
Value 46	46 Weeks	16
Value 47	>=47 Weeks	13

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