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The demand manager of Maverick Jeans is responsible for ensuring sufficient warehouse space for the finished jeans that come from the production plants. It has occasionally been necessary to rent public warehouse space, something that Maverick would like to avoid. In order to estimate the space requirements the demand manager is evaluating moving-average forecasts. The demand (in 1,000 case units) for the last fiscal year is shown below. onth 1 emand 20 a. 2 18 3 21 4 25 5 24 6 37 7 22 8 30 9 23 10 20 11 29 12 22 Use a three-month moving average to estimate the month-in-advance forecast of demand for months 4-12 and generate a forecast for the first month of next year. Calculate the average forecast error and mean absolute error. b. Use a three-month weighted moving average with weights of 0.6, 0.3, 0.1 (most recent to last recent, respectively) to calculate month-in-advance forecasts for months 4-12 and forecast for the first month of next year Calculate the average forecast error and mean absolute error. c. Compare the average forecast error and MAD for the forecasting methods in parts a and b. Based on these error calculations, which of the two forecast methods would you recommend? Why? The demand manager of Maverick Jeans is responsible for ensuring sufficient warehouse space for the finished jeans that come from the production plants. It has occasionally been necessary to rent public warehouse space, something that Maverick would like to avoid. In order to estimate the space requirements the demand manager is evaluating moving-average forecasts. The demand (in 1,000 case units) for the last fiscal year is shown below. onth 1 emand 20 a. 2 18 3 21 4 25 5 24 6 37 7 22 8 30 9 23 10 20 11 29 12 22 Use a three-month moving average to estimate the month-in-advance forecast of demand for months 4-12 and generate a forecast for the first month of next year. Calculate the average forecast error and mean absolute error. b. Use a three-month weighted moving average with weights of 0.6, 0.3, 0.1 (most recent to last recent, respectively) to calculate month-in-advance forecasts for months 4-12 and forecast for the first month of next year Calculate the average forecast error and mean absolute error. c. Compare the average forecast error and MAD for the forecasting methods in parts a and b. Based on these error calculations, which of the two forecast methods would you recommend? Why?
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Related Book For
Operations Management Processes And Supply Chains
ISBN: 9781292409863
13th Global Edition
Authors: Lee Krajewski, Naresh Malhotra, Larry Ritzman
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