1. The fundamental difference between cycles and seasonality is the
A) Duration of the repeating patterns
B) Magnitude of the variation
C) Ability to attribute the pattern to a cause
D) All of the above
E) None of the above
2. What is the approximate forecast for May using a four-month moving average?

A) 38
B) 42
C) 43
D) 44
E) 47
3. Given an actual demand of 61, a previous forecast of 58, and an alpha of .3, what would the forecast for the next period be using simple exponential smoothing?
A) 45.5
B) 57.1
C) 58.9
D) 61.0
E) 65.5
4. The last four months of sales were 8, 10, 15, and 9 units. The last four forecasts were 5, 6, 11, and 12 units. The Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) is
A) 2
B) -10
C) 3.5
D) 9
E) 10.5
5. A seasonal index for a monthly series is about to be calculated on the basis of three years' accumulation of data. The three previous July values were 110, 150, and 130. The average over all months is 190. The approximate seasonal index for July is
A) 0.487
B) 0.684
C) 1.462
D) 2.053
E) Cannot be calculated with the information given
6. __________ expresses the error as a percent of the actual values, undistorted by a single large value.
A) MAD
B) MSE
C) MAPE
D) FIT
E) The smoothingconstant

Nov. Dec. Feb. Mar. Jan. April 46 39 36 40 42 48