Question: Consider once again the decision to redesign an aircraft. a. Find the expected value of perfect information about the redesign program. Calculate separately the expected

Consider once again the decision to redesign an aircraft.

a. Find the expected value of perfect information about the redesign program. Calculate separately the expected value of perfect information about the U.S. government’s decision.

b. Suppose that management of the consortium questions its engineers about the success or failure of the redesign program prior to committing to it. Management recognizes that its engineers are likely to be biased in favor of the program. It judges that if the program truly will succeed, the engineers will endorse it 90 percent of the time, but even if the program will fail, they will endorse it 50 percent of the time. What is the likelihood of success in light of an endorsement? What if the engineers do not endorse the program?

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