Consider the stylized example of Figure 7.3, in which there is a jump in the mean value.
Question:
FIGURE 7.3 Moving- Average Calculations in a Stylized Example
a. Take a = 0.2. Calculate the forecasts generated by exponential smoothing, and compute the values of MSE, MAD, and MAPE for periods 10-15.
b. Repeat the calculations in part (a) but with a = 0.6.
c. If we suspect that there might be a jump in the underlying process, which of the two values of a examined in parts (a) and (b) would be preferred?
Transcribed Image Text:
AI BIC Moving Average Example к 1 3 Period 4-week Moving Average Observed A(t) Forecast Error Deviation Percent 6-week Moving Average A(t) Forecast DifferenceDeviation Percent 100 100 100 100 100.00 0% 100 100.00 100.00 0.00 0.00 10 100.00 0% 100 100.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 11 100.00 0% 100.00 0% 100 100.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 0.00 0.00 12 0% 0% 100 100.00 100.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 100.00 0.00 0.00 100 13 100.00 100.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 100.00 0.00 0.00 0% 44% 44% 14 10 180 120.00 100.00 80.00 80.00 113.33 100.00 80.00 80.00 15 33% 126.67 66.67 37% 11 180 140.00 120.00 60.00 60.00 113.33 66.67 16 180 22% 30% 12 160.00 140.00 40.00 40.00 140.00 126.67 53.33 53.33 20.00 17 13 180 180.00 160.00 20.00 11% 153.33 140.00 40.00 40.00 22% 18 0% 26.67 15% 14 180 180.00 180.00 0.00 0.00 166.67 153.33 26.67 0% 180.00 166.67 7% 19 15 180 180.00 180.00 0.00 0.00 13.33 13.33 0% 20 180 0.00 0% 16 180.00 180.00 0.00 180.00 180.00 0.00 0.00 21 17 180 180.00 180.00 0.00 0.00 0% 180.00 180.00 0.00 0.00 0% 22 0% 0% 18 180 180.00 180.00 0.00 0.00 180.00 180.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0% 23 19 180 180.00 180.00 0.00 0.00 0% 180.00 180.00 0.00 24 0% 0% 20 180 180.00 180.00 0.00 0.00 180.00 180.00 0.00 0.00 25 26 MAPE MSE MAPE MSE MAD MAD 27 18.5% 25.9% For periods 10-15 2000.00 33.33 2696.30 46.67 Lon. 7.3 7.2
Fantastic news! We've Found the answer you've been seeking!
Step by Step Answer:
Answer rating: 75% (12 reviews)
The exponential smoothing model is used in forecasting This method is better than the moving average model a Use following formula to calculate forecasted value in exponential smoothing model Where Sm...View the full answer
Answered By
Gauri Hendre
I worked as EI educator for Eduphy India YT channel. I gave online tutorials to the students who were living in the villages and wanted to study much more and were preparing for NEET, TET. I gave tutions for topics in Biotechnology. I am currently working as a tutor on course hero for the biochemistry, microbiology, biology, cell biology, genetics subjects. I worked as a project intern in BAIF where did analysis on diseases mainly genetic disorders in the bovine. I worked as a trainee in serum institute of India and Vasantdada sugar institute. I am working as a writer on Quora partner program from 2019. I writing on the topics on social health issues including current COVID-19 pandemic, different concepts in science discipline. I learned foreign languages such as german and french upto A1 level. I attended different conferences in the science discipline and did trainings in cognitive skills and personality development skills from Lila Poonawalla foundation. I have been the member of Lila poonawalla foundation since 2017. Even I acquired the skills like Excel spreadsheet, MS Office, MS Powerpoint and Data entry.
5.00+
4+ Reviews
10+ Question Solved
Related Book For
Management Science The Art of Modeling with Spreadsheets
ISBN: 978-1118582695
4th edition
Authors: Stephen G. Powell, Kenneth R. Baker
Question Posted:
Students also viewed these Numerical Analysis questions
-
Consider the stylized example in Figure 7.13. Repeat the forecasts using the additive model with trend, using the same smoothing constants. FIGURE 7.13 Stylized Model with Trend and Cyclic...
-
Consider the example of Figure 7.7, in which the smoothing constant was taken to be α = 0:2. Repeat the calculations for smoothing constants between 0.1 and 0.9, in steps of 0.1. FIGURE...
-
Consider rolling a green die and a white die. The roll (1, 5) is different from (5, 1). a. How many different outcomes are possible for this two-die experiment? b. How many different outcomes are...
-
A limited partnership: Multiple Choice has an unlimited life. can opt to be taxed as a corporation. terminates at the death of any one limited partner. has at least one partner who has unlimited...
-
How might you replace a halogen substituent by a deuterium atom if you wanted to prepare a deuteratedcompound? Br , CHH-H CHCH2CH
-
Use Worksheet 8 to reconcile the balance in a bank or credit union checking account. Big USA Bank Summary Beginning balance 6/27 $1,964.17 Total deposits $2,823.46 Total withdrawals $2,982.74 Service...
-
In 2000, when the tPA process in Example 2.3 was synthesized using Chinese hamster ovary cells, data could not be located for the second reaction path using E-coli bacterial cells. Search the...
-
At the beginning of last year, Diekow Productions set variable overhead standards of 10 machine hours at a rate of $ 10 per hour for each product produced. During the year, 10,800 machine hours were...
-
A six - cylinder 4 - stroke cycle petrol engine is to be designed to develop 3 2 0 kW of ( b . p ) at 2 6 0 0 rpm , the bore / stroke ratio is to be 1 : 1 . 3 . Assuming the mechanical efficiency is...
-
Lyons document storages controller, eric petro, told rene that the bonds were issued in 1999 at a discount and that only approximately $9.1 million was received in cash. Explain what is meant by the...
-
The operations manager at a manufacturing facility is about to begin an energy-efficiency initiative. As this program begins, it will be helpful to have benchmark data on energy use, in order to...
-
Brad's Burritos provides a simple set of lunch offerings in a college town. The shop has recently decided to implement a forecasting system and is testing the use of exponential smoothing methods....
-
Find an appropriate graphing software viewing window for the given function and use it to display its graph. The window should give a picture of the overall behavior of the function. There is more...
-
A U.S. investor who purchases the bonds issued by the U.S. government made the following statement: "By buying this debt instrument lam not exposed to default risk or purchasing power risk." Explain...
-
You just inherited 30,000 shares of a company you have never heard of, ABD Corporation. You call your broker to find out if you have finally struck it rich. After several minutes, she comes back on...
-
Nurse leader DNPs are evaluated on their agility, ability to create a culture of trust by recognizing the collective wisdom of those with whom they work, and on their business acumen. There is a need...
-
A U.S. investor who purchases the bonds issued by the government of France made the following comment: "Assuming that the French government does not default, 1 know what the cash flow of the bond...
-
Your broker is recommending that you purchase U.S. government bonds. Here is the explanation: Listen, in these times of uncertainty, with many companies going bankrupt, it makes sense to play it safe...
-
Explain why, if a companys profits are growing at rates greater than the current interest rates and have been expected to continue doing so for several more years, a stock price can greatly exceed...
-
Explain the circumstances that could result in a long-term bank loan being shown in a statement of financial position as a current liability.
-
A new product will sell for $8. The company expects to sell around 900,000 units. (Use a normal distribution with a mean of 900,000 and a standard deviation of 300,000.) Fixed costs are normally...
-
TCS Corporation has recently decided to manufacture a product in its own facilities rather than outsource to Asian manufacturers. Its new plant will last about ten years. TCS is considering two...
-
The Van Horne Company manufactures air conditioners that are sold to five large retail customers around the country. Van Horne is evaluating its manufacturing and logistics strategy to ensure that it...
-
4.5. Multiplication in GF(24): Compute A(x)-B(x) mod P(x) in GF(24) using the irreducible polynomial P(x) = x++x+1. What is the influence of the choice of the reduction polynomial on the computation?...
-
Write a C++ program that calculates the volume of a cylinder. Define appropriate variables for the diameter and the height of the cylinder. Assuming the units of these variables are in inches,...
-
a. Show the d and values that result from running breadth-first search on the directed graph of Fig 1, using vertex A as the source. (Ascending Order) b. Show the d, f and values that result from...
Global Perspectives In FinTech Law Finance And Technology 1st Edition - ISBN: 3031119533 - Free Book
Study smarter with the SolutionInn App