Fethe’s Funny Hats is considering selling trademarked, orange-haired curly wigs for University of Tennessee football games. The purchase cost for a 2-year franchise to sell the wigs is $20,000. If demand is good (40% probability), then the net cash flows will be $25,000 per year for 2 years. If demand is bad (60% probability), then the net cash flows will be $5,000 per year for 2 years. Fethe’s cost of capital is 10%.
a. What is the expected NPV of the project?
b. If Fethe makes the investment today, then it will have the option to renew the franchise fee for 2 more years at the end of Year 2 for an additional payment of $20,000. In this case, die cash flows that occurred in Years I and 2 will be repeated (so if demand was good in Years 1 and 2, it will continue to be good in Years 3 and 4). Write out the decision tree and use decision-tree analysis to calculate the expected NPV of this project, including the option to continue for an additional 2 years. Note: The franchise fee payment at the end of Year 2 is known, so it should be discounted at the risk-free rate, which is 6%.