Fingerprint expertise. A study published in Psychological Science (August 2011) tested the accuracy of experts and novices in identifying fingerprints. Participants were presented pairs of fingerprints and asked to judge whether the prints in each pair matched. The pairs were presented under three different conditions: prints from the same individual (match condition), no matching but similar prints (similar distracter condition), and no matching and very dissimilar prints (no similar distracter condition). The percentages of correct decisions made by the two groups under each of the three conditions are listed in the table.

a. Given a pair of matched prints, what is the probability that an expert failed to identify the match?
b. Given a pair of matched prints, what is the probability that a novice failed to identify the match?
c. Assume the study included 10 participants, 5 experts and 5 novices. Suppose that a pair of matched prints was presented to a randomly selected study participant and the participant failed to identify the match. Is the participant more likely to be an expert or a novice?

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Fingerprint Experts Condition Novices Match Similar Distracter Nonsimilar 92.12% 74.55% 99.32% 100% 44.82% 77.03% Distracter