Question: Following with the same data as in Exercise 6, plot the realized values against the forecasts and run a regression such as yt+1 = 0

Following with the same data as in Exercise 6, plot the realized values against the forecasts and run a regression such as yt+1 = β0 + β1 ft,1 + ut+1 where y+1 is the realized GDP growth and ft,1 is the 1-quarter-ahead forecast. Are the values scattered around a 45-degree line? What are the estimates β^ and β^ The forecast will be called unbiased under a quadratic loss function if β0 = 0 and β1| = 1. Perform a t-ratio for the individual hypothesis and an F-test for the joint hypothesis to determine whether the forecast is unbiased. What do you conclude?

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In stature 22 we plot the actual data versus the forecast of GDP growth The green line is the 45 deg... View full answer

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