For the 10-year period between 2000 and 2010, the average number of deaths due to accidents involving U.S. commercial airline carriers has been about 46 per year. Over that same period, the average number of passengers has been more than 600 million per year.
a. Can you consider this a long run or short run of trials? Explain.
b. Estimate the probability of dying on a particular flight. (By contrast, for a trip by auto in a Western country, the probability of death in a 1000-mile trip is about 1 in 42,000, or more than 50 times the flight’s estimated probability.)
c. As of April 2011, the last fatal accident involving a U.S. carrier occurred in Buffalo, New York, in February 2009, a span of more than two years. Mary comments that she is currently afraid of flying because the airlines are “due for an accident.” Comment on Mary’s reasoning.