Forecasters' interest rate predictions over an eight-year period were studied to see whether the predictions corresponded to what actually happened. The 2 × 2 contingency table below shows the frequencies of actual and predicted interest rate movements. Research question: At α = .10, is the actual change independent of the predicted change?

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Forecasted Change Rates would fal Rates would rise Col Total Rates Fell Rates Rose 12 6 18 Row Total 19 15 34 7 16