Question: Foreign policy experts estimate that the probability is 0.65 that war will break out next year between two Middle East countries if either side significantly

Foreign policy experts estimate that the probability is 0.65 that war will break out next year between two Middle East countries if either side significantly escalates its terrorist activities. Otherwise, the likelihood of war is estimated to be 0.05. Based on what has happened this year, the chances of terrorism reaching a critical level in the next twelve months are thought to be three in ten. What is the probability that the two countries will go to war?

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